A post-Labor Day Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll of likely voters released Thursday afternoon shows the presidential race in Florida is in a dead heat and anybody's to claim -- 47 percent for Hillary Clinton, 47 percent for Donald Trump.
Just as it was in Q-Poll's Aug. 9 survey.
The huge gender gaps that have marked this presidential campaign are still in play in three of the four swing states surveyed -- Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In the fourth state, North Carolina, there is a wide racial gap but almost no gender gap. In Pennsylvania, Clinton loses support among women and Democrats.
Specifically in Florida, women back Clinton 56-36 percent, while men back Trump 58-36 percent. Trump leads 88-9 percent among Republicans and 48-39 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 94-4 percent. White voters back Trump 59-36 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 67-25 percent.
"To understand the racial divide in the electorate, consider the sharp contrast between white men and non-white voters in Florida. Trump is getting just 25 percent from minority voters, while Clinton gets just 26 percent of white men," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"The effect of the Republican and Democratic conventions on the presidential race has run its course," he said. "As the campaign enters its final stage, Florida and Ohio, two of the largest and most important swing states, are too close to call, while North Carolina and Pennsylvania give Hillary Clinton the narrowest of leads."
The poll's presidential matchups show this:
- Florida -- Clinton and Trump tied 47 - 47 percent;
- North Carolina -- Clinton at 47 percent, with Trump at 43 percent;
- Ohio -- Trump at 46 percent to Clinton's 45 percent;
- Pennsylvania -- Clinton tops Trump 48 - 43 percent.
With third party candidates in the race, results are these:
- Florida -- Clinton and Trump tied 43 - 43 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson at 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent;
- North Carolina -- Clinton edges Trump 42 - 38 percent, with 15 percent for Johnson. Stein is not on the ballot here;
- Ohio -- Trump edges Clinton 41 - 37 percent, with Johnson at 14 percent and Stein at 4 percent;
- Pennsylvania -- Clinton tops Trump 44 - 39 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.
Said Brown, "The obvious takeaway from these numbers is that Donald Trump has staged a comeback from his post-Democratic convention lows, especially in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Taking a bit longer view, however, we see a race that appears little changed from where it was as the GOP convention began in July, and at least in these four key states is very much up for grabs."
Clinton holds leads of 7 to 20 percentage points among women, while Trump's lead among men ranges from 7 to 22 percentage points. Trump's lead among white voters ranges from 8 to 30 percentage points, while Clinton takes non-white voters by margins of 42 to 71 percentage points.
From Aug. 29 through Sept. 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
- 761 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
- 751 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
- 775 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
- 778 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Live interviewers, land lines and cell phones were used to conduct this poll. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina and the nation as a public service and for research.
Visit the Quinnipiac University Poll site or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll or follow on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
Reach Nancy Smith at nsmith@sunshinestatenews.com or at 228-282-2423. Twitter: @NancyLBSmith
