Itll be a sprint to replace Bill Young in Congress with reports out that primaries will be held on Jan. 14 and the general election on March 11. This is good news for Alex Sink who is picking up momentum and building an early lead despite primary rival Jessica Ehrlichs head start.
Ehrlich never really stopped campaigning against Young after her solid outing in 2012 which was the best Democratic showing against him in recent memory. As she started preparing a second campaign, Ehrlich was starting to build some steam and rake in some endorsements and national attention.
But Youngs announcement that he would not run again in 2012, followed quickly afterward by his death, scrambled the entire race. The moment Sink expressed interest, Ehrlichs momentum faded. Its telling that Emilys List abandoned Ehrlich for Sink on Thursday, only a day after the Democrats standard bearer in the 2010 gubernatorial nomination said she was running.
Democrats have nothing against Ehrlich but they dont think she will be as strong a candidate as her rival, even if Sink has to pack her bags, buy a house and actually move into the district. As Sink inched closer to running, Democrats started clearing the decks for her. After being clobbered by Young in 2010, Charlie Justice said he wouldnt run this time out. Janet Long also quickly took her name out of the mix. And why not? Sinks no spring chicken at 65 and wont be holding the seat for more than 40 years the way Young did.
Ehrlich still has the backing of some unions but shes now facing the daunting task of keeping them in line. Otherwise, theyll follow Emilys List and hop on the Sink bandwagon. Look for the pressure to build on Ehrlich to get out of the race. The stakes are simply too high as, after the shutdown, Democrats have a chance to pick up a Republican seat in a swing district which happens to be in a crucial area of the ultimate battleground state.
The picture on the Republican side is nowhere near as clear. Big names like Will Weatherford and Jack Latvala showed no interest in getting in. Right now, Republicans are hoping Rick Baker gets in but he isnt exactly beating a quick path to enter the race. Even the Young family is sending up mixed signals as his widow, brother and son have all expressed interest in running. There are other possible candidates but until Baker declares and whichever Young, if any, emerges, the Republican field is still in flux.
All of this is good news for Sink. At first glance, the primary calendar should help her and Baker if he runs. Voters in the Pinellas County district will be distracted in the weeks before the primary as the Buccaneers continue to find new ways to lose and the holiday season kicks in. They wont exactly be paying much attention to politics, though Ehrlich and dark-horse Republicans could have a window in the two weeks before the primary, by which time voters will be sick of Christmas music and tired about fighting for parking spots at the malls. Of course an election is not exactly the cure for the post-holiday blues.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
