A surge in consumer confidence has the Florida Chamber Foundation anticipating improved retail sales in the coming holiday season over 2011.
This relationship between consumer confidence and taxable retail sales is helpful in predicting Floridas upcoming holiday season, Rick Sessa, research and policy manager for the Florida Chamber Foundation, stated in a release.
The strong upward trend in retail sales that has held through August 2012, combined with timely releases of the Florida consumer confidence index, serves as a bellwether of seasonal economic activity.
The University of Floridas Survey Research Center in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, which charts consumer confidence, noted Florida remains near a post-recession high.
Floridians are still feeling relatively optimistic in October as we head into the final week of the election, Chris McCarty, director of UFs Survey Research Center, stated when the October numbers were released.
The index was revised up a point in September to a post-recession high of 80. Our preliminary October reading of 79 is near that high, although in normal times it would be historically low.
The index, in use since 1966, runs a scale from 2 to 150, with 100 the standard from 1966.
McCarty noted Floridians remained pessimistic or ambivalent to the economy in part because of the then-pending presidential contest and some awareness of the set of automatic federal budget cuts and tax increases -- the so-called fiscal cliff.
But these issues were offset bysigns of economic recovery, including a surge in new home sales in Florida, and the Federal Reserves recent stimulus -- which ensures relatively low mortgage rates through next year -- will continue to support an improving housing market.
The chart below highlights the relationship between Floridas taxable retail sales (in grey) and monthly consumer confidence levels (in green).
Reach Jim Turner at jturner@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 218-9889.
