Floridas population statistics from the 2010 U.S. Census were released late in the week, providing a clear picture of how complicated the redistricting process will be, and inserting greater intrigue into the 2012 campaign season.
There were 18.8 million residents in Florida as of April 2010, 2.8 million more than in 2000, the date of the last census.
Much of the population growth occurred in Central Florida, along the I-4 corridor which stretches from Tampa through Orlando and over to Daytona Beach and the Space Coast, and in Southwest Florida.
Floridas population growth means it will add two congressional districts, adding to its already considerable political clout. Republican leaders in the Legislature are hoping to flaunt this by holding Floridas presidential primary in late January 2012, against national Republican Party rules.
Florida doesnt grow neatly, it never has, said veteran Florida political observer Ed Moore, Ph.D., CEO of the Independent Colleges and Universities of Florida.
The Legislature, which is tasked with redrawing the congressional and legislative districts, wont be adding any seats but will be affected nonetheless, as several districts have grown considerably while others experienced weak growth. The states haphazard growth means district boundaries must change significantly to accommodate an even distribution of constituents in each district.
For the Florida Senate, that means each of its 40 members should have 470,033 citizens in their districts. Senate District 20, which encompasses most of Lake County and parts of Sumter, Marion, Volusia and Seminole counties, and is currently represented by Sen. Alan Hays, R-Umatilla, is the most out of sync with the ideal number, with 576,207 people in the district.
Senate District 13, which covers half of Pinellas County and is represented by Sen. Dennis Jones, R-Seminole, will need to be enlarged after experiencing a population decrease. It holds 394,766 people, 4,797 less than in 2000.
Sen. Don Gaetz, R-Niceville, who chairs the Senate Reapportionment Committee, has promised a fair and open process, with several public hearings throughout the state this summer, ahead of the 2012 legislative session, which begins early in January to incorporate the redistricting process.
My instruction from (Senate) President Mike Haridopolos is to engage in the most transparent, open, and interactive redistricting process in America, Gaetz said.
While the Senate Reapportionment Committee has already held meetings in preparation of the 2010 Census data being released, the House Reapportionment Committee has yet to announce its members.
The committees chairman, Rep. Will Weatherford, R-Wesley Chapel, said early Thursday that committee members will be announced soon, but did not specify when, saying only that the committee will hold meetings before the end of the 2011 legislative session.
The plan is to have a committee formed very shortly, Weatherford said.
Weatherfords House District 61 also happens to be an area that will be greatly affected by the redistricting process. The Western Central Florida district has 242,396 people in its boundaries, nearly 55 percent more than the target for even distribution. Only Rep. Stephen Precourt, R-Orlando, in House District 41 has more people in his district.
Despite the weakened position of Democrats in the Legislature with a superminority in both chambers, party leaders say they expect to have a large influence on the redistricting process.
Rep. Perry Thurston, D-Plantation, who was recently elected as the next Democratic Party leader in the House after the 2012 elections, is leading his partys negotiations over membership on the House Reapportionment Committee. He wants an even number of Democrats to Republicans on the committee, even though the GOP outnumbers the Democrats 81 to 39 in the House.
I think for something as important as redistricting, we should keep the numbers as close to even as we can. I feel if they have eight, we should have eight, Thurston said.
Thurstons district is also likely to be altered in the redistricting process. His House District 93 is 23,491 residents short of the ideal number of 156,678 citizens per house district.
The political fights over redistricting, however, arent likely to fall along traditional party lines. Republicans already have supermajorities in both houses, and will be hard-pressed to find a set of boundaries that will enable them to increase their lead.
Instead, the bickering will be conducted along geographical lines, as politicians in Southwest and Central Florida with newfound clout in the form of a surplus of citizens will squabble over lines with their counterparts in South Florida, where growth rates over the last decade were more stagnant.
Floridas awkward geographic boundaries combine with its uneven growth to frustrate lawmakers looking to abide by Amendments 5 and 6, voted into the state Constitution in 2010, which stipulate that districts must be contiguous, compact, and not be drawn to favor or disfavor incumbents or racial or language minorities.
Florida is not a compact and neatly designed state geographically. Were not designed that way. It exacerbates the current situation, Moore said of the amendments.
Still, legislators are confident they can match the ideal of the amendments in the law with the demographic realities of the state.
Whether it makes it more complicated or not, its the law and were going to follow it, Weatherford said.
Reach Gray Rohrer at groher@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
