Garcia has made one gaffe after another during his two years in Washington, ranging from saying communism works in a bizarre ramble during a Google hangout to being caught digging in his ear and eating whatever he found -- presumably ear wax -- in a video that went viral. More seriously, Garcia has been caught up in scandals with questions about his role in an electoral fraud case. Garcia staffers resigned as their roles in the scandal were brought out and the congressmans former chief of staff, Jeffrey Garcia (no relation), did jail time.
Despite this, Garcia is no political novice. He survived losses to Mario Diaz-Balart in 2008 and Rivera in 2010 to bounce back and win in 2012. Before he came to Washington, Garcia had been on the public stage during his time leading the PSC and Miami-Dade Democrats.
Garcia is in a bit of an odd position in terms of his old boss Barack Obama. On the one hand, Garcia welcomes the administrations support and he did work in the Energy Department after Obama won the White House in 2008. But Garcia has also pushed back against Obama in recent weeks, taking to the House floor to call him out for not pushing immigration reform fast enough and even accusing him of cutting Medicare during a debate on Monday. Its a strange contrast from last week when Garcia was holding events with Tom Vilsack focusing on agriculture.
Republicans smell blood and they think they have the man to beat Garcia in Carlos Curbelo. Only 34, Curbelo has risen quickly to his current post on the Miami-Dade School Board. Curbelo has gotten some national attention and he impressively beat a crowded Republican primary field which included Rivera making an ill-conceived comeback.
Garcia and Curbelo have shown no hesitation in getting into the mud. In fact, the nasty tone of the campaign has gotten national notice. Curbelo has pounced on all of Garcias various missteps. For his part, Garcia has gone after Curbelo for comparing Social Security to a Ponzi scheme and his work as a lobbyist.
Both sides have done well with fundraising. with Garcia bringing in $2.8 million and Curbelo $1.3 million by the middle of August. But the real story is outside groups which continue to run attack ads across the district. The NRCC and the DCCC are working hard in South Florida with plenty of PACs going on the attack as well. There is nothing particularly uplifting about this contest which has quickly descended into a mud fight.
Despite all the mud being thrown and his own gaffes, the district appears to be going Garcias way. Its one of the reasons Diaz-Balart hightailed it out of there in 2010 to run for the seat held by his brother Lincoln. It also explains why Obama beat Mitt Romney here.
Back in 2012, Republicans had a slight advantage in the district, outnumbering Democrats 37 percent to 36 percent. Now the Democrats have the edge, 35 percent to 34 percent. Voters outside the two major parties are on the rise here, moving from 27 percent in 2012 to 31 percent this time out.
These independent voters will be key come November and in the years to come. Republicans are hopeful these voters will back Curbelo who is fiscally conservative but is left of the GOP on some issues including immigration reform. Garcia hopes bringing up Curbelos lobbying past will scare these voters off while the Republicans play up the congressmans mistakes and his support for Obama. With a month to go, both candidates will try to woo independent voters while the attacks will only accelerate.
Most national pundits, like Larry Sabato and the Cook Report, are calling this race a tossup. Its fixing up to be a cliffhanger, making this the second most competitive congressional race in Florida.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
