Stretching across the Big Bend and the eastern part of the Panhandle, Floridas 2nd Congressional District contains all of Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Taylor, Wakulla and Washington counties and parts of Holmes and Madison counties. Much of the districts population resides in and around Tallahassee and Panama City.
At first glance, this district should be a Democratic fortress. But many North Florida Democrats remain very conservative with deeper ties to the South than the rest of the Sunshine State. Half of the voters in CD 2 -- 50 percent -- are Democrats while 33 percent are Republicans and 17 percent fall outside the two major parties. These independent voters continue to grow here as they do across much of the Sunshine State. In 2012, only 13.5 percent of voters in the district were outside the major parties.
Despite the clear Democratic registration advantage, Mitt Romney beat out Barack Obama here in 2012 when Democrats made up 54 percent of the district. Romney took over 52 percent of the vote while Obama lagged behind with 46.5 percent.
Southerland came to power in 2010, painting Democrat Allen Boyd as an Obama supporter and reminding voters he backed Obamacare. Boyd was seriously hindered in the primary by Al Lawson and came up short, taking 41 percent while Southerland won with 54 percent. In 2012, Southerland faced Lawson and beat him by a smaller margin, winning 53 percent to 47 percent for the longtime Democratic legislator.
Graham scored a big coup when Lawson stayed out of the race this time out instead of running for a third term. Democrats at the national level adore Graham and, in a year where they are expected to lose seats in both chambers of Congress, she presents them with a very rare opportunity to take a seat from the Republicans.
Theres been a bit of biographical editing going on in the race. Graham, the daughter of Florida political legend Bob Graham, is running against Washington and pushing the North Florida way. But Graham has major ties to D.C. where she worked as an attorney -- Republicans accuse her of being a lobbyist -- and she was an aide to her father during his presidential campaign as well as helping out the likes of John Kerry and Howard Dean. Graham is trying to paint Southerland, who was a funeral home owner before he came out of nowhere to beat Boyd in 2010, as a politician more concerned with trying to please the tea party and the Koch brothers than helping the district.
Graham might be positioning herself as a Washington outsider but shes shown no hesitation in taking money from the Beltway. So far its worked, since she has outraised Southerland. But outside groups like Americans for Prosperity, liberal House Majority PAC, the DCCC and the NRCC have been pouring money into the district, trying to give their candidate some help. Attack ads are being run constantly on Tallahassee and Panama City stations.
Despite all the activity and money being spent, this race could depend more on what happens higher up on the ballot. Democrats are hoping state employees in and around Tallahassee come out to vote against Rick Scott -- and give Graham a bit of a boost. Southerland is more content to focus on turnout outside of Tallahassee and around his home base of Panama City, hoping conservatives are still fed up with Obamacare.
But Southerland has made a few mistakes over the years: complaining he could make more money had he never served in Congress, reports about skinny dipping in the Dead Sea during a congressional junket, having an all-male fundraiser and, when Democrats pounded him for it, asking Graham if she ever went to an all-female lingerie shower. Graham and her allies have tried to portray Southerland as overly concerned about his perks and status in the constant stream of ads theyve unleashed across the district.
Pundits have been torn in how they see the race with the likes of the Cook Political Report rating it as a tossup while Larry Sabato thinks it leans Southerlands way. Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans here but they often back conservatives which should help Southerland. But Grahams father always did well up here in his various gubernatorial and Senate campaigns and he and Bill Nelson have been campaigning hard for her. Graham should be able to round up more moderate and conservative Democrats than Lawson or Boyd did. Factor in the gubernatorial race and this race is going down to the wire. Both sides released polls in recent days claiming they have the lead. Add it all up and CD 2 is shaping up as the most competitive congressional race in Florida.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
