In any other year, Rep. Allen Boyd, D-Monticello, might be coasting to victory.
In seven previous campaigns, the congressman has barely broken a sweat. His sprawling North Florida/Panhandle district is 54 percent Democratic, he holds a perennially hefty fund-raising advantage and he deftly tacks toward the middle of the political spectrum ... most of the time.
But in a stunning reversal of fortunes, Boyd is fighting for his political life this fall. A new poll shows him trailing GOP challenger Steve Southerland 56-30, and Republican groups are pouring money and resources into the district that political prognosticators call ripe for a takeover.
"It may be 'Bye-Bye, Boyd-ie,'" says Jerry Dorchuck, head of PMI Inc., which conducted the recent poll.
Boyd is facing stiff headwinds in this season of tea party activism and anti-incumbent fever. Amid the sinking popularity of President Barack Obama and Democratic leadership on Capitol Hill, "Blue Dog" Boyd has been hammered by both the left and the right.
After he barely edged state Sen. Al Lawson, D-Tallahassee, in the Democratic primary, a crowd of conservatives lined up to challenge him.
Steve Southerland emerged victorious in a five-way GOP primary and two conservative No Party Affiliation candidates, Paul McKain and Dianne Berryhill, also appear on the fall ballot.
Though Boyd and pundits figured early on that the trio would simply split the conservative vote and hand over another Democratic win, the numbers aren't turning out that way.
Neither McKain nor Berryhill has broken into double digits in the polls, leaving Southerland to dominate the field. Boyd, perhaps owing to his close margin over Lawson, has yet to consolidate his Democratic base.
Boyd's nuanced position on the federal health-care bill illustrates his problem. He initially voted against the House version of the legislation and then voted for the Senate bill. That looked like a flip-flop, which endeared him to neither liberals nor conservatives.
Though continuing to fashion himself as a fiscal hawk, Boyd's unabashed embrace of Obama's stimulus spending hasn't played well. Yard signs popping up in his largely rural district shout: "Blue Dog = Lap Dog."
Southerland has capitalized on Boyd's apparent softening support within his own party. According to the PMI poll, 50 percent of Southerland's supporters are Democrats.
Dorchuck said the PMI survey points to a perception that Boyd isn't so much an independent thinker as he is a "puppet" for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and an "arrogant politician."
Southerland eagerly promotes those impressions.
"His voting record shows that he sides with Pelosi 96 percent of the time. That's a definitive statement that those are not the values we cherish in this district. He's not been a moderate," said Southerland, who is making his first run for public office.
The Boyd camp challenged both Southerland and the poll results.
Whereas Mr. Southerland has relied on skewed and fantastical polling in an attempt to mask the difficulties his fledgling campaign is having, the most recent fund-raising totals paint a crystal clear picture of exactly where the momentum is in this race," said Boyd campaign manager, J.R. Starrett.
"Congressman Boyds enormous cash-on-hand advantage will allow him to continue holding Steves feet to the fire about where he truly stands on the issues, a difficulty that has plagued Steve throughout his entire campaign," Starrett said.
Indeed, Southerland has issues, too. He initially denied donating to one of Boyd's previous campaigns, until confronted with the canceled check. He's also had a string of unpaid taxes and tickets, which the funeral-home director has blamed on a bad economy.
Two conservative business organizations -- the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Associated Industries of Florida -- continue to endorse Boyd.
But in a year of energized Republicans and right-turning independents, Southerland has struck an apparent electoral gusher. He is now getting cash infusions from the National Republican Congressional Committee and an alliance of GOP groups headed by Karl Rove, former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie and others.
That national assistance will be key as Southerland continues to trail Boyd in the fund-raising race. The latest reports show the incumbent with almost four times more cash on hand.
Crucially, Southerland recently won the endorsement of former Gov. Jeb Bush, along with the backing of former state House Speaker Allen Bense, Associated Builders and Contractors, and the American Conservative Union.
The Rothenberg Political Report shifted the CD 2 race to a "tossup/tilt Republican" while the Cook Political Report still pegs it as a tossup.
In a campaign swing through the district last week, House Republican Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, predicted that Southerland would knock off Boyd.
Touting "free-market principles," Southerland told Sunshine State News he's "a conservative in a center-right district." The fourth-generation Bay County resident believes that his brand of fiscal and social conservatism is a natural fit in the Panhandle
Nonetheless, the two NPA candidates keep nipping at his right flank.
Paul McKain, a retired fire-paramedic and businessman, scored 8 percent in the PMI poll and says he has more political experience than Southerland as an activist opposing such controversial legislation as the CLEAR Act last summer.
McKain, who briefly aligned with the Whig Party, calls Southerland "a patsy," who will "kowtow" to GOP bosses.
Noting that Boyd voted for CLEAR -- which conservatives assailed as an assault on the oil industry and private property -- McKain says, "He doesn't represent the people."
Dianne Berryhill bridles at what she calls corruption in the state Republican Party, and says Southerland, as the anointed favorite in the primary, is part of the problem.
"He represents the party and nothing will change if he's elected," predicts the Tallahassee activist, who garnered 6 points in the poll.
As for Southerland's double-digit poll lead, Berryhill suggests that district residents "are voting out of hatred for Boyd. They think Steve has the best chance."
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
