Case in point is the contest in Congressional District 18 which is the third most competitive congressional district in Florida. Back in 2012, Democrat Patrick Murphy beat then-Congressmen Allen West in CD 18 by less than 2,000 votes and various snafus led to the final result not being known until a few days after the election.
Things will not be that competitive this time out as Murphy faces Carl Domino in November. Stretching along the Treasure Coast, linking South Florida to the central parts of the state, the district contains all of St. Lucie and Martin counties and part of Palm Beach County.
Working in Dominos favor is a Republican lean in the district. Even as Murphy beat out West in 2012, higher up on the ballot, Mitt Romney edged Barack Obama here 52 percent to 48 percent. Also helping Domino is a GOP advantage in registered voters.
But that might not help Domino as much as it could. Republicans make up 37 percent of the district, down from 39 percent in 2012. Democrats are also on the decline in CD 18, moving from 37 percent in 2012 to 35 percent this time out. Voters outside the major parties are on the rise here, going from 24.5 percent in 2012 to 27 percent now. These voters often tend to be fiscally conservative, socially liberal and tired of politics as usual.
That helps Murphy who has claimed the political center during his time in Washington. Despite being a Democrat, Murphy has shown no hesitation in breaking with the party on some key issues. Earlier this year, Murphy was one of the most prominent Democrats to call out the Obama administration for gutting Medicare Advantage to pay for Obamacare. Back in May, Murphy was one of only six Democrats in Congress voting to hold former IRS official Lois Lerner in contempt of Congress. On some issues, Murphy sounds like a fiscal conservative, calling for the federal government to get out of the way on flood insurance and backing bills cutting wasteful government spending.
Unlike West, Murphy has generally avoided the national stage. Instead, the freshman Democrat has focused on his district, working on various issues like All Aboard Florida and protecting the Everglades.
Murphy has played up his work on local issues in his campaign. Already, the Murphy campaign has released eight TV ads, some of them playing up his work on local issues. Murphy has also shown off his ability to reach across the aisle, with TV commercials featuring independents and Republicans praising his record. Polishing his fiscal conservative record, Murphy has also won the support of pro-business groups including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Business-Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC).
In his first term, Murphy has proven himself a fundraising dynamo. By the end of September, he had hauled in almost $5 million, more than $2 million of which he is planning to use with TV commercials.
All of this makes the race an uphill climb for Domino. Republicans kept waiting for a top tier candidate to run against Murphy with speculation that West could seek a rematch, Gayle Harrell could enter or Adam Hasner would move north to run here. But none of that happened. West threw his support behind Ellen Andel but her campaign went nowhere. Domino became something of a default front-runner on the Republican side despite losing two state legislative primaries in a row back in 2010 and 2012.
Domino scored an impressive victory in the Republican primary, taking 38 percent in a six-candidate field. Still, he has not been able to keep close to Murphys fundraising prowess. By the middle of August, Domino had brought in $616,348.3, much of which came from his personal wealth.
That being the case, Domino has only run a few TV ads so far in the campaign. Domino has an impressive background in the private sector and in the military, including serving in the Navy during the Vietnam War. So far, Domino has tried to work his life story into one of the ads while the others have gone after Murphy, insisting the congressman backs amnesty for illegal aliens and trying to tie him to Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi.
With a month to go, this race simply doesnt look that competitive, though the Republican registration advantage ensures that the contest gets some attention. Several conservative groups, including Americans for Prosperity, have steadily downgraded this race as the months have gone by, moving it from a battleground race to placing it on their watch lists. National pundits and their outlets like Larry Sabato and the Cook Political Report have pegged this race as Leans Democrat.
Domino can keep swinging away, claiming Murphy is a Pelosi clone, but he needs to do something dramatic to shift the momentum with a month to go. This might have been a nail biter in 2012 but thats certainly not how its stacking up this time out. Despite that, CD 18 is the third most competitive congressional race in Florida, which says more about most of the incumbents who are set to cruise in November than anything about this particular contest.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
