With Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee out of the way, the Republican establishment wants Mitch Daniels to jump into the presidential fray. But while the Indiana governor may be a consensus choice among insiders, he's viewed with suspicion by bedrock conservatives.
Daniels can claim close connections to the Bush family, having served as director of the Office of Management and Budget during George W. Bush's first term. Jeb Bush, according to the Florida Times-Union, told a private gathering of Jacksonville business leaders in February that "Mitch is the only one who sees the stark perils and will offer real detailed proposals."
This week, after removing himself from consideration, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour urged Daniels to enter the contest. Columnist George Will said this week that the only two viable GOP candidates are Daniels and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
A regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal's op-ed page, Daniels, 61, receives plaudits from the GOP business class for his fiscal policies in Indiana.
But the compliments are occasionally backhanded, accompanied by dismissive references to his short stature, balding pate and overall wonkishness.
"We're probably going to get a boring white guy, like Mitch Daniels," syndicated columnist Jonah Goldberg opined recently.
Beyond superficiality, a deeper look into Daniels' record raises concerns among conservatives.
Michael F. Cannon, writing in National Review, said that for all of Daniels' supposed fiscal bona fides, the governor has hurt himself on the health-care issue.
"Like Barack Obama, Daniels increased cigarette taxes to expand government-run health care. Whereas Obamacare requires states to open their Medicaid programs to families of four earning $31,000 (138 percent of the federal poverty level), Daniels expanded Indianas Medicaid program to families of four earning $44,000 (200 percent of poverty)," Cannon noted.
Though it's not quite Massachusetts' "Romneycare," Daniels' Health Indiana Plan (HIP), is fiscally unsound and pushes Indiana's higher Medicaid costs onto federal taxpayers.
"Every $1 Indiana spends on HIP triggers at least $2 of spending by the federal government; no matter what state you call home, youre paying for Mitch Daniels government-run health-care plan," Cannon states.
Conservatives worry that Daniels is walking both sides of the street -- fighting Obamacare while looking for technocratic ways to make the program work.
While Indiana joined Florida and two dozen other states in challenging Obamacare, Daniels co-signed a letter with 20 other governors suggesting "improvements" in the federal program.
CONTROVERSIAL CALL FOR 'TRUCE' ON SOCIAL ISSUES
Where Daniels' supporters see pragmatism, others see political gamesmanship and muddled principles.
Daniels has fanned the flames by declaring that Republicans should "call a truce" in the fight over social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage. He poked conservative icons when he told CPAC attendees thatthe party needed to reach out beyond "Rush [Limbaugh] and Shawn [Hannity]."
Limbaugh curtly responded: "I'll disarm on social issues when the Democrats do."
Also perceived as soft on immigration, Daniels, whose paternal grandparents were Syrian, raised eyebrows when he was given the Arab-American Institute's 2011 Najeeb Halaby Award for Public Service. That set neo-cons and the influential Israel lobby chattering.
And there, again, were echoes from the Bush regime. In an all-but-forgotten twist of history, George W. Bush, with strategic guidance from Karl Rove and Grover Norquist, captured more Muslim support than Al Gore in the closely fought 2000 election. Bush's 46,200-vote edge over Gore among Muslims in Florida was more than enough to carry him to victory here.
Anthony Verdugo, head of the Miami-based Christian Family Coalition, praised Daniels for signing a bill barring public funds for Planned Parenthood, a leading abortion provider in Indiana.
But Verdugo suggested that the governor was inspired more by political expediency than by principled convictions, and said Daniels must hew to a socially conservative line consistently if he expects to do well in Florida's presidential primary.
"If he's pro-marriage, pro-life and anti-Obamacare, he can play well. If he runs away from those issues, that will hurt him in the GOP primary," Verdugo said.
Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the conservative Susan B. Anthony List, said Daniels exercised "passive" leadership in signing the Planned Parenthood bill and "took a step backward" when he clarified his "truce" remark by saying it was meant to apply nationally.
Indeed, Daniels' centrist tack reminds some of John McCain's 2008 strategy. Daniels, along with Newt Gingrich, appears to be reprising that moderate/maverick ploy for 2012, and that further burnishes the Hoosier's credentials as a "serious" candidate in the eyes of the party establishment.
Roger Stone, a longtime Republican consultant based in Miami, calls Daniels "a good fellow and a smart guy, but the field is not yet complete."
Rick Wilson, a Tallahassee-based GOP consultant, added that while Daniels "has deeper political relationships than some people realize, there are questions among Republican base voters as to whether he can bring the heat."
"Still, his political stock seems to be rising," said Wilson, a senior adviser to U.S. Senate hopeful Adam Hasner.
AN UNUSUAL MARRIAGE AND A WIDE OPEN FIELD
Daniels' unusual marital history is intriguing. He and wife Cheri divorced in 1993, after which Cheri moved to California and married a longtime friend. When that marriage ended in divorce, she remarried Daniels and resumed family life with their daughters in Indiana.
Cheri Daniels has said she hates politics and abhors the idea of a presidential campaign. But with pressure on Daniels to enter the race intensifying, Laura Bush telephoned Mrs. Daniels on the eve of Cheri's first political speech last week in Indianapolis. Mrs. Bush purportedly counseled Mrs. Daniels on the role of first lady.
Florida political analyst Brian Crowley said, "There's a suggestion [Daniels] is attractive to the Bush family, and it never hurts to have Jeb Bush's help in this state, although that's becoming a little more diffuse as time goes by."
Noting that the younger Bush has been out of office for five years, Crowley said, "It's hard to hold together a political machine when you're not leading it."
"I'm not sure that the Bushes are rallying around [Daniels], but they have said good things about his fiscal management of both OMB and Indiana," said Brett Doster, a Republican strategist in Tallahassee.
Doster called Jeb Bush "still far and away the top pick for Florida" as the state's residents sort through the GOP's shifting presidential lineup.
Bush and Daniels strike common ground in that social issues have not been a top priority for either camp. And that's a positive for some of the state's tea partiers.
Henry Kelley, chairman of the Fort Walton Beach Tea Party, said the federal government "needs to work together to solve fiscal issues. We need to have genuine adult conversation, not silly talk about filling moats with alligators," a reference to Obama's slap at Republicans on immigration.
Kelley says he is intrigued by both Daniels and Jon Huntsman, a Utah businessman who had been appointed by Obama to be U.S. ambassador to China. Huntsman resigned that post last month.
Polls show that none of the Republican prospects has caught fire with Floridians. A survey by the GOP firm Sunshine State Communications found 32 percent of likely voters are undecided -- more than Mitt Romney's 16 percent and Newt Gingrich's 15 percent combined.
One veteran political strategist who asked not to be named threw cold water on a Daniels boomlet before it even officially begins:
"He cannot and will not win Iowa or New Hampshire or Nevada or South Carolina, and he won't get to Florida alive. Bad hair transplant, crooked nose, boring speaker -- he's not a TV candidate for the TV age."
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or (772) 801-5341 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting (772) 801-5341 end_of_the_skype_highlighting.
