With Republicans taking over the U.S. Senate and a presidential contest looming in 2016, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., will be holding a few of the major cards in 2015. Rubio has said that he will announce his decision about a presidential bid in the first quarter of the new year. In the new Republican Senate, Rubio should have more chances to shine than in his previous four years. In particular, Rubio has an opportunity to continue taking the lead against President Barack Obamas plans to normalize relations with Cuba. Rubio will assume control of the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee in January and will have his chances to jab away at Obamas Cuba policies, raising his profile in time for a possible presidential campaign.
Rubios decision will greatly impact Florida politics. If Rubio decides to run for a second term, other Republicans will stay home in 2016 while some leading Democrats will also pass on Senate bids. But if Rubio runs for president, ambitious politicians from both parties will roll the dice on the chance to head to the Senate.
One possible Democratic Senate hopeful could be U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., whose name has garnered some buzz as a possible foe for Rubio in 2016. This will be a big year for Wasserman Schultz who has been drawing fire as chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) after her partys losses in November. Very few observers expected Wasserman Schultz to stay at the DNCs helm for the 2016 elections. Where she goes from here is one of the many political dramas on the Florida stage in the new year.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush, R-Fla., will also be in the limelight in 2015. Bush got a leg up over some of his potential rivals in the Republican presidential primaries by announcing earlier this month that he will start an exploratory committee and PAC as he looks at 2016. This helped propel Bush to the top of a recent CNN poll, but there remain major questions about his chances in 2016 -- ranging from conservatives being unhappy with him over Common Core and immigration to fatigue with his family in the White House. If Bush runs, he will have to find a way to survive Iowa and New Hampshire and take the battle to friendlier ground in South Carolina and Florida. Look for Bush to work those early states throughout the new year. But other candidates will also be in the mix and Bush will draw more than his share of fire from the likes of U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.
Republicans will be more confident in advancing legislation through the Congress now that the Senate is under GOP control, but Obama is showing no signs of backing down. That will give some members of the Florida delegation a chance to shine. Chairing the Veterans Affairs Committee, U.S. Rep. Jeff Miller, R-Fla., will continue to play a major role in shaping VA reform. U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., will mold foreign policy as chair of the House Middle East and North Africa Affairs Subcommittee with U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch, D-Fla., as the ranking Democrat.
In the meantime, other members of the Florida delegation will be involved in moving up the congressional ladder -- or trying to dislodge leaders. U.S. Rep. Ted Yoho, R-Fla., opposed U.S. House Speaker John Boehners, R-Ohio, bid to keep the gavel in early 2013 and is expected to do so again in January. U.S. Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Fla., is now part of the House leadership and it will be interesting to see how he handles his new assignments. Democrats are increasingly turning to U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, D-Fla., for a larger role with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) as they try to rebuild their depleted ranks.
In the meantime, Florida will have two new members of the delegation in Republican Carlos Curbelo and Democrat Gwen Graham. With those two new members representing swing areas, both parties will have to decide in 2015 whether to target those seats in 2016. Democrats will also face decisions about going after the likes of U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., U.S. Rep. David Jolly, R-Fla., and U.S. Rep. Dan Webster, R-Fla., in 2016 while the GOP will once again ponder trying to take on the increasingly secure U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla.
But most eyes will be on the presidential race. Florida looms large in both the presidential primaries and the general election in 2016. The Sunshine State will also be milked for money as candidates will hit Florida for fundraising. The presidential race will certainly dominate the stage and it will shape Florida politics even if ballots wont be cast for another year.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
