The Republicans path to take over the U.S. Senate in 2014 became much easier this weekend when former Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana announced that he would not run for the Senate seat currently held by retiring U.S. Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont. Right now, Democrats control the chamber with 54 senators while there are 46 Republicans.
Schweitzer was widely expected to run for the seat and his decision to stay out of the contest is a heavy blow for Democrats. While Montana is a near lock for Republicans in presidential elections, Democrats have done well in state elections. While Gov. Steve Bullock appears near certain to stay out of the Senate race, two Democrats elected to statewide office -- state Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau and state Auditor Monica Lindeen -- are considering entering the fray.
The Republicans have a much deeper bench than the Democrats in Montana. State Rep. Champ Edmunds and former state Senate Republican Leader Corey Stapleton, who ran for governor and lost in 2012, are already in the race. U.S. Rep. Steve Daines, state Attorney General Tim Foxan and former U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg are looking at jumping in. So is former Gov. Marc Racicot who led the Republican National Committee and chaired George W. Bushs re-election effort in 2004.
Between Montana leaning Republican in national politics and the GOPs bench, Democrats will be hard-pressed to keep the seat. Lindeen ran for Congress in 2006, a good year for Democrats across the nation, and she came up short. While not a slam dunk for Republicans, Montana should provide them an excellent opportunity to pick up a Senate seat.
The Democratic bench also looks thin in South Dakota where U.S. Tim Johnson, the only member of that party to currently hold a statewide elected office, is bowing out in 2014. Republicans have a deeper bench once again in a strongly red state. Former Gov. Mike Rounds and current state Senate GOP Whip Larry Rhoden are already running for the Republican nomination while former state Sen. Bill Napoli and former Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby are eying getting in. The only Democrat in the race is Rick Weiland, a former FEMA official who ran for Congress twice and lost both times. Look for Republicans to pick up this seat in 2014.
Republicans are optimistic about taking the seat currently held by Democrat U.S. Sen. Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia. While Democrats do well in state elections, West Virginia continues to trend red in national politics. U.S. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., is the favorite to win the Republican nomination despite some opposition from the tea party and conservatives. So far, Capito has been able to avoid major primary opposition and faces a field of Republican opponents who have struggled in recent elections. State Supreme Court Justice Robin Davis, former Democratic Party Chairman Mike Callaghan and current Secretary of State Natalie Tennant are looking at entering the contest on the Democratic side but Capito would be a favorite to defeat any of them.
Democrats, on the other hand, can only count on being the favorites to pick up one Senate seat currently held by Republicans. Newark Mayor Cory Booker starts out in the Democratic primary as a favorite to win the nomination over the field despite some impressive candidates like U.S. Rep. Rush Holt, U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone and state Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver standing in his way. Booker is expected to take on Republican Steve Lonegan in November and easily beat him. Appointed to the Senate after the death of Frank Lautenberg last month, U.S. Sen. Jeff Chisea, R-N.J., is not looking to stay in Washington.
But New Jersey is the only real clear opportunity for Democrats to pick up a Senate seat. The main battlegrounds in 2014 will all be for seats currently held by Democrats in often hostile territory. Democrats will have to keep open seats in Michigan and Iowa left vacant by the retirements of Carl Levin and Tom Harkin, though both states have a blue lean. But things get dicey with four Democrats holding seats in red seats seeking re-election in 2014 -- Mark Begich in Alaska, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Mark Pryor in Arkansas. All four Democrat incumbents should have tight contests in states that are, to some degree or another, usually Republican at the national level.
Republicans need 51 votes to control the Senate while Democrats can stay at 50 votes and rely on Vice President Joe Biden to break ties and keep control of the chamber. With the Democrats expected to flip New Jersey while Republicans are favored to win Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, the GOP is close to controlling the Senate with 48 votes. If Republicans defeat three out of four endangered Democratic incumbents holding seats in traditionally red states, the GOP will win the Senate. Its tough to be sure but it is manageable, especially considering where the battlegrounds will be. Schweitzer staying out of the race in Montana has improved the Republicans chances of picking up the Senate by a considerable margin.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
