Lost in the shadow of what Marco Rubio will do in 2016 is the fate of his Senate colleague. Bill Nelson, who will turn 76 in 2018 when he is up for a fourth term and there is already speculation brewing over what his plans are.
Nelson is acting like he is planning to run again. Earlier this month, he sent out a fundraising email, a sign that he is at least looking at running again. Nelson will certainly need to fill his coffers if he does since Florida has been far friendlier to Republicans than Democrats in recent off-year elections.
Its easy to dismiss Nelson as a nonentity in Washington but he is a proven winner for Democrats. However bland and forgettable he is, Nelson is the only Democrat in recent years to win consistently at the state level, becoming something of an heir to Bob Graham and old rival Lawton Chiles who could win elections year after year.
Nelson might not have as distinct a political personality as Graham and Chiles ever had but he has been a remarkably successful politician, the only Florida Democrat still standing even as Republicans won every other statewide office. Pulling together victories over the last 40 years, Nelson is the last Democrat standing in Florida -- no mean feat as the state grows increasingly Republican in everything but presidential elections.
The question is, where does Nelson go from here and what his role will be on the campaign trail in 2016. Nelson missed his chance to chair a major committee, at least for two years, as Democrats lost the Senate. Nelson could run for a fourth term in 2018 but hell be 76 then and plenty of senators retire around that age.
In the meantime, Florida looks like it will be a battleground state yet again in 2016. Nelson might not play a major role in the Senate race that year but Hillary Clinton, or whoever the Democratic nominee is, should be sure to call on his help come 2016. Thats at least one lesson Democrats should learn from Charlie Crists campaign in which Nelson played a minor role at best.
Still, one thing which could lead Nelson to retire is a growing bench of Democrats who could become serious contenders for an open Senate seat. Alan Grayson and Debbie Wasserman Schultz might be too liberal for many Florida voters but there are others waiting in the wings. Patrick Murphy looks like a rising star for Florida Democrats and, while it is early, so does Gwen Graham. Ted Deutch might be able to make a play for moderates with his hawking foreign-policy views and his strong support for Israel. Democrats might not have had much in the way of serious contenders to run against Rick Scott and the rest of the Cabinet last year, but they do have something of a bench to help them keep Nelsons Senate seat.
Nelson is in no rush, of course. He can see how Florida goes in 2016 in the presidential and the Senate elections. But his decision will impact quite a bit in Florida politics, from which Democrat runs for Marco Rubios seat in 2016 to what they do in 2018.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
