Florida's card rooms start dealing no-limit poker at 12:01 a.m. Thursday, and the state hopes to be a winner.
Higher stakes generate bigger pots and more play -- all of which should add up to greater gaming revenues flowing to Tallahassee.
The 2010 Legislature lifted the limits on poker as part of the Seminole gaming compact. While the tribe got the exclusive right to offer Las Vegas-style slots and banked card games such as blackjack and baccarat, along with no-limit poker, Florida pari-mutuels are betting that high-stakes poker will boost their bottom line, too.
"We're excited, and we'll be holding a party. We're planning to offer free drinks every night after midnight," said Steve Calabro, president of Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach.
In addition to raising the stakes, Florida's new law allows poker rooms to operate around-the-clock on weekends and 18 hours a day on weekdays. Previously, play was restricted to 12 hours per day.
Calabro estimated that the new rules will yield a double-digit revenue increase at his Gulfstream "racino," which features thoroughbred racing and a casino.
"It could be 15 to 30 percent," he said.
The Seminole Tribe is almost as enthusiastic.
"It will be interesting to see how many people will play who didn't play before," tribal spokesman Gary Bitner said.
While Bitner would not divulge revenue projections, he pledged, "There absolutely will be more (poker) tournaments."
A July 25-Aug. 3 Summer Open Poker Tournament at the Seminole Hard Rock hotel-casino in Hollywood will feature guaranteed prizes of up to $250,000 in a series of Texas Hold-em and Omaho Hi Lo events, he said.
Under the state's Seminole compact, which still must be approved by the U.S. Department of Interior, the tribe agreed to pay Florida a minimum of $1 billion over five years in exchange for expanded gaming.
The revenue will help to narrow Tallahassee's budget gap, and higher-stakes poker action should yield still more revenues. But critics inside and outside the industry have questioned the equity and efficacy of the state's gaming policy.
Calabro complains that the Seminoles get "a phenomenally better (tax) rate" on their slot machines than do racinos such as Gulfstream.
"We're at 50 percent on slots. Now we're going to 35 percent. But that's still four times the Seminoles' rate," Calabro said.
Though the tracks and the Seminoles are assessed comparable tax rates on poker, at least one gaming analyst downplays the pari-mutuels' ability to compete in the long run -- even with the new liberalized rules.
"It will buy them a couple of years, but that's it," predicts Bill Thompson, a professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
Unimpressed with the allure of national poker tournaments, Thompson opined:
"It's like the Super Bowl. That saved Detroit, right? One week, then it's over."
Mark Thibault, director of the Miami-based Andrew Jackson Institute, which opposes the spread of Indian gaming, said, "The one bone the pari-mutuels got was poker. This, coupled with the lower tax rate, makes them break even.
"Until then, they are in survival mode," Thibault said.
Even the Seminoles' Bitner was cautious about the effect of the new wide-open poker laws.
"With any change in a game, there's an immediate bump in action. But it doesn't necessarily continue at the higher level," he said.
But, overall, South Florida's pari-mutuels see expanded poker offerings as a positive development and a job creator.
"We're improving our (poker) room and making it a showcase," Calabro said.
And that, too, adds up to more revenue for Tallhahassee.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
