Most polls show the race is close though there are a few outliers. Neither candidate is remotely close to being popular and turnout is expected to be low come November. That benefits Scott since Republicans are generally better at turning out their voters in off-year elections than Democrats. Thats certainly the case in Florida where Democrats have been losing gubernatorial elections for almost 20 years.
Scott should be able to count on the GOPs organizational edge in what is expected to be a close race. To be sure, Barack Obamas campaigns showed how new technologies and social media can help get Democrats to the polls, but thats more a factor with presidential elections than off-year contests. Witness David Jollys win in a special congressional election earlier this year where the GOPs organizational advantage paid off in the upset over Alex Sink.
The irony is that Scott is poised to be the chief beneficiary of the GOPs efforts to get out the vote. Scotts never been exactly chummy with the Republicans who rule Tallahassee. Back in 2010, he upset their apple cart when he beat Bill McCollum in the primary. To be sure, the leadership of the business community has come on board and Scott continues to retain their support. But the GOPs hearts belong to the likes of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio over Scott while the tea party prefers its various champions --Ted Yoho, Allen West, Curt Clawson -- over the governor.
Scott will be highlighting his ties to the GOPs leadership later this month. On Tuesday, news broke that Bush and Rubio would host a fundraiser for Scott in Coral Gables on Oct. 24. Both Bush and Rubio have been mentioned as potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016 but, more often than not, they have been allies. Certainly neither man has much use for Crist who Rubio beat in the 2010 Senate race.
The governor certainly has no reason to complain about Bush and Rubio getting involved during the last days of his campaign. Conservatives certainly have their issues with both men: Bush mainly on Common Core and Rubio on immigration. Despite that, Florida Republicans generally support both of them, even if they break with them on some issues. Jorge Bonilla, who was running in a Republican congressional primary, made the mistake of using quotes from national conservative pundits who trashed Bush and Rubio. The Bush-backed Carol Platt called Bonilla out on it and went on to destroy him in the primary.
Unless the dynamic of the election changes big time in the next five weeks, this contest is going to be down to the wire with a low turnout. If thats the case, both sides will need to rely heavily on the party base. Scott could have no better people to beat the drums to get Republicans out than Bush and Rubio.
Tallahassee-based political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
