With 2010 almost ready to be counted out, one of the years top Florida stories Republican Rick Scotts election will turn a new page, morphing into one of the New Years first major political events.
As the governor-elect readies for his Jan. 4 inauguration, the News Service of Florida asked a dozen lobbyists, elected officials and academics to look ahead and take stock of the early hurdles facing Scott.
As 2010 fades, lets count down from 10 the top challenges facing the incoming governor in 11.
10: A High Bar: Scott takes office promising to add 700,000 jobs to Floridas feeble economy. Sure, hes giving himself seven years to do this. But the new executive also says hell reach this goal on top of the roughly million jobs economists say Florida will add during that time, through normal growth and business expansion. Scotts job creation promise will sit like a thermometer on the windowsill of the new administration. And it had better keep going up. Still, a University of Central Florida forecast this month warns the states unemployment rate wont drop below 10 percent until early 2013.
9: An Impatient Public: Winning the closest governors race in modern Florida history means Scott doesnt have a deep well of popular support. A survey this week by Public Policy Polling shows Scotts unfavorability rating dropped from 54 percent when he was elected to 43 percent now. But Floridians, mired in a three-year economic downturn, likely wont give the new guy a lot of time to make good on his campaign promises. If Scott wants proof, he just has to check how President Obamas political fortunes turned in two years. Scott has plans that go out seven years, but I think hes only going to get seven months to make things happen, said House Democratic Leader Ron Saunders of Key West.
8: Finding the Money: Scotts got billions of dollars he wants to give away. A property-tax break would save Floridians $1.4 billion; eliminating the corporate income tax would slice more than $1.8 billion, and the incoming governor also wants to reduce unemployment taxes and cut more than $3 billion in electric utility costs for businesses. The states pension and employee health care system are vast repositories of money that could yield savings even with relatively modest changes. But while Scott wants to give money back especially to businesses and homeowners the states $3.5 billion budget shortfall shows the leaky ship of state is going to demand plugs.
7: Staffing his Administration: As a candidate, Scott fueled visions of Americas best and brightest flocking to Tallahassee eager to reinvent government. But with inauguration around the corner, the "help wanted" sign is still the most prominent feature on the new administrations door. Scotts transition teams have released hundreds of pages of proposals to revamp agencies, instill efficiencies, and eliminate wasteful spending. But the uncertainty about coming to work for an outsider CEO who doesnt particularly like government seems to be slowing down the hiring process. After all, todays agency job may look nothing like what it will if Scott gets his way with the Legislature. Scott also is discovering what lawmakers, corporate recruiters and local government officials have long known: Tallahassee can be a tough sell.
6: Fighting Red Tape Fanatics: Scott gets plenty of mileage deriding regulations he says are hampering the states economy. Growth management and environmental standards seem to commonly land in his crosshairs, along with duplicative regulations between competing state agencies. But the Capitols fourth-floor rotunda is frequently a swirling sea of lobbyists representing industries or individual companies seeking to get a leg up on a rival by imposing a department rule or landing a request for proposal. When Scott takes on regulations, he may also be taking on some influential lobbyists and their legislative patrons. The governor could soon be schooled in why some special interests are more special than others.
5: A Work Force Insurgency: Scotts talked of slicing at least 5 percent of the state work force. Hes also expected to push for more privatization of prisons, ending teacher tenure, and consolidating a handful of state agencies. All told, Scotts efforts appear poised to create a vocal cadre of self-avowed policy victims some of them well-financed by the Florida Police Benevolent Association, Florida Education Association and American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME). If Scott instills reforms deftly, he may avoid creating a loud and unified opposition. But wholesale changes involving large numbers of public employees could yield fierce pushback that overwhelms the new administration.
4: The Media Funnel: Scotts a kind of do-it-yourself guy when it comes to the media. He spent $73 million of his own money to win election with the bulk of the cash going to saturation television advertising in which he starred. Meanwhile, Scott the candidate declined to meet with the states newspaper editorial boards, apparently seeing no benefit in having his policies or positions distilled through the media funnel. In turn, none of the states major papers endorsed his candidacy.
However, once hes sworn-in as governor Tuesday, Scott will likely have to deal with the press. His proposals will draw media scrutiny, critics views will be aired. And theres a good chance Scott wont often like what he reads or hears on television and radio. Will he occasionally try to sidestep the press and run his office like the campaign, maybe with help from the Florida Republican Party? We know that raising money here is going to be a full-time job for the next party chairman, said outgoing state GOP Chairman John Thrasher, a St. Augustine senator.
3: Ambitious Legislators: Floridas legislative leaders supported Scotts Republican primary rival, Bill McCollum, and spent four months running a scorched earth campaign against the governor-elect last summer. Theyve now spent an equal amount of time as his ally. But Scott is aware of the thin ice on which he stands. Senate President Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, has U.S. Senate ambitions of his own for 2012 against Democrat Bill Nelson. And with redistricting hitting at the midpoint of Scotts term, there will be plenty of legislators angling for higher office. That can work both ways for Scott, with some seeking the governors support and others looking to cross swords with him to assert their independence and gain political leverage. Scott clearly has more to fear from hungry Republican allies than he does from outnumbered Democrats at this point.
2: Runaway Rhetoric: Scotts already promised plenty. But in one of his first acts, he may want to keep his inaugural address vague and lofty, since whatever he says on Jan. 4 is likely to linger for the next four years. Late Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles covenant with the people, and Republican Jeb Bushs wish to make these buildings around us empty of workers and silent monuments, rattled long after their inaugurals. So far, Scott has spoken mostly of jobs, jobs, jobs. But Gary Mormino, a University of South Florida historian, said, Id like to hear him Tuesday talk about the new Florida dream. What we had in this state now seems like its in the ash can of history, with this economy. But how does he connect our past with the future?
1: Obama, Again: Scott ventured into politics leading Citizens For Patients Rights, the campaign opposing President Obamas health care overhaul. CPR failed to derail the initiative. But as a gubernatorial candidate, Scott managed to seize on the presidents rising unpopularity in Florida in defeating Democrat Alex Sink. He also ridiculed the federal stimulus money used to balance Floridas budget the past three years. Scott remains devoted to keeping federal health care requirements out of Florida, and theres no more stimulus to spread around or criticize. But Scott may have to play a central role courting the Obama administrations support for a Medicaid waiver needed to enact the Legislatures sweeping, cost-saving attempt to put more low-income Floridians into managed care.
HAPPY NEW YEAR
