There's bound to be much Monday-morning quarterbacking after Democrat Annette Taddeo's victory this week over Republican Jose Felix Diaz in a special election for a Miami-Dade County Senate seat.
And according to one GOP strategist, football --- or rather, President Donald Trump's take on an NFL movement --- was the cause of Diaz's defeat.
“This was squarely on the NFL tweets,” said J.C. Planas, a former Republican state representative who now teaches election law at St. Thomas University in Miami.
Taddeo's campaign and state and national Democrats did a good job of tying the president to Diaz, who once appeared as a contestant on Trump's television show, “The Apprentice,” observers on both sides of the aisle say.
While older Cuban voters in Senate District 40 hold Trump in high regard, the president's popularity among younger Cuban-Americans and other Hispanic voters is in the dumps, analysts agree.
Diaz was relying on absentee ballots and Election Day turnout --- where Republicans in the district outperform Dems --- to boost him to victory.
But a controversy over whether National Football League players should kneel during the national anthem got in the way, according to Planas.
Trump's tweet storm over the weekend, excoriating players for kneeling, bumped up turnout on Sunday, the last day of early voting, and on Election Day, Planas said.
“It really boosted Democratic, particularly African-American Democratic turnout. Big time,” he said.
Both sides expected the race to be close, but Taddeo ended up defeating Diaz, who resigned from the House to run for the seat, by 3.7 percentage points Tuesday.
There was an uptick in early voting Sunday, compared with previous turnout numbers, Planas said.
“(Trump's tweets) dominated the news cycle Monday after the teams' reaction. And, in the wake of Charlottesville, I think that stirred anger perhaps in the African-American community,” he said.
Trump has drawn fire for blaming “both sides” following a white-nationalist rally last month   in Charlottesville, Va., that turned deadly when a car plowed into a group of counter-protesters, killing 32-year-old Heather Heyer.
“We were dealing with a particular news cycle. If Trump had spent the weekend tweeting about Puerto Rico, who knows what the results might have been,” Planas said.
Even without the NFL hullabaloo, the Trump albatross was a major drag in the district, according to Democratic strategist Steve Schale.
“This is a part of the state where immigration policy matters, and where Obamacare was always popular,” Schale wrote on his blog.
Recent polling in the district, in which 67 percent of the voters are Hispanic, showed former President Barack Obama with a 63 percent favorable rating while half of the voters gave Trump a very unfavorable grade.
“Absolutely nothing Trump has done over the last six months was good news for Republicans there,” Schale wrote.
The reason for the special election may also have spurred turnout among black voters, Taddeo and others in the district said before Tuesday.
With her election, she replaces former state Sen. Frank Artiles, who resigned after a racially tinged and expletive-laced outburst at a private club near the Capitol.
The Miami Republican Artiles stepped down in April after calling Sen. Audrey Gibson, a black Democrat from Jacksonville, "girl," a "bitch," and a "f---ing ass----." Artiles also reportedly used the word "niggers" or "niggas," though he contended he did not direct the word at anyone in particular.
Black pastors who demanded Artiles' ouster, and the pastors' congregants, participated in a “souls to the polls” barbecue with the Democratic candidate Sunday.
“They haven't forgotten,” Taddeo said at the time.
FASANO'S DRUG DATABASE FLASHBACK
Pasco County Tax Collector Mike Fasano, a former longtime Republican state lawmaker, dug up some bitter memories as Gov. Rick Scott rolled out a proposal this week to spend $50 million to combat the opioid epidemic.
“Better late than never,” Fasano tweeted shortly after Scott held the first of two news conferences to announce his budget request. “Where was our Florida Governor in 2011 when he wanted to abolish the PDMP & Office of Drug Control?”
In 2011, Fasano, then a member of the state Senate, pushed to toughen existing regulations against "pill mills" and to support the Prescription Drug Monitoring Program, an electronic database that Scott wanted to repeal.
Fasano also tweeted out a pair of news reports on Tuesday about the electronic database, designed to help prevent addicts and drug dealers from getting supplies of painkillers through "doctor-shopping."
“Long memories 2011,” Fasano noted. “Gov. Scott wants to repeal Florida's prescription drug monitoring program."
Also: “2011 `Out-of-state officials begging Scott not to kill Florida pill database.' ”
Speaking in West Palm Beach on Tuesday, Scott said there are now more safety measures in place for the database to protect people's information. Part of the proposal he rolled out this week would require doctors to check the database before writing prescriptions for pain medications.
“I've signed a lot of bills, we've passed legislation, they've created more security for people,” Scott said.
TWEET OF THE WEEK: “Congratulations to Florida's newest State Senator Annette Taddeo. I wish you nothing but success in your new role.” --- Former state Rep. Jose Felix Diaz (@josefelixdiaz) after being defeated Tuesday in the state Senate District 40 special election.
