Did more Cuban-Americans vote for Republican Gov. Rick Scott in November than voted for GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney two years earlier? And might that explain the difference between Scott's narrow win this year in Florida and Romney's narrow loss in 2012?
Those are questions raised by a new poll released this week by the Republican Party of Florida. And while such publicly released polls are always subject to scrutiny, the survey by GOP pollster Wes Anderson, of OnMessage Inc., contrasts with surveys a few years ago that seemed to show Democrats gaining ground among a traditionally Republican voting bloc
According to Anderson's poll, Scott won 65 percent of the Cuban-American vote, compared to the 30 percent garnered by former Gov. Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee.
Anderson's results on the Cuban-American vote are closer to the 65-35 split that John McCain achieved as the GOP nominee in 2008 than the 52-48 split for Romney in 2012, according to exit polls conducted in those years by Bendixen and Amandi, a Miami-based research and consulting firm. President Barack Obama won Florida in both cases, though it's worth noting that his overall margin was much wider in 2008 amid a Democratic wave that helped sweep him into power.
Some analysts blamed Romney's immigration rhetoric for his poor showing among Latinos in general, including Cuban-Americans. During the 2012 Republican primaries, the former Massachusetts governor suggested that the government should impose policies that would lead undocumented immigrants to choose "self-deportation," a remark Democrats repeatedly used in the general election.
Scott -- who was first elected promising a crackdown on undocumented immigrants -- took a different tack in this year's re-election bid. He chose Carlos Lopez-Cantera, a former state representative who is of Cuban descent, as his lieutenant governor. And Scott reluctantly endorsed, then fought for, a bill granting in-state college tuition rates to some undocumented immigrants.
Anderson's survey also showed Scott fighting to a near-draw with Crist among Hispanic voters overall, despite Democratic efforts nationwide to build a majority coalition that includes Latinos. Scott won 47 percent of the Hispanic vote to 49 percent for Crist, Anderson found.
"It could (certainly) be argued that the campaign's success with Hispanic voters had as much or more to do with Governor Rick Scott's victory than any other targeted group," Anderson wrote in a memo about his findings.
According to OnMessage Inc., the firm interviewed 1,000 voters from Nov. 10 to Nov. 12 -- including 175 Hispanic voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is 3.1 percentage points, though a margin of error was not included for the Hispanic voter results.
A caveat: Anderson's survey at least partially contradicts the results of an analysis of exit poll data by the Pew Research Center. According to that study, Scott garnered just 38 percent of the Hispanic vote, to 58 percent for Crist -- which would represent a steep drop from Scott's 2010 campaign, when he won 50 percent of the Hispanic vote, Pew said.
DEMOCRATS TRY TO TURN THE PAGE
The leaders of a task force the Florida Democratic Party established to review the 2014 elections said they will take a critical look at staff and other aspects of how the contest was conducted at the state level.
But an idea floated by a number of Democrats still stung from the latest gubernatorial defeat -- to push for a statewide referendum that realigns gubernatorial and presidential elections -- so far isn't on the table.
"I'd love to do it. The question is, can you get 60 percent of the vote to amend the (Florida) Constitution?" U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, co-chair of the Leadership Expansion to Advance Democrats, told reporters in a conference call Tuesday. "As you can see, if a popular idea of medical marijuana dispensed by a licensed physician comes up just short, with millions of dollars spent, it's going to be a tough campaign."
Nelson was referring to a proposed constitutional amendment that would have legalized medical marijuana. The proposal failed last month, despite receiving nearly 58 percent support.
The election date proposal, first publicly raised by Democratic strategist Kevin Cate, who served as a spokesman for unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist, is to move the governor's race from the midterms to the years with presidential contests, when more voters typically turn out.
Democrats have won Florida in three of the last six presidential elections. The GOP has held the governor's mansion since 1998.
The task force has yet to have a full sit-down, but its leaders said the party's message got lost amid national chatter and better-funded efforts by Republicans.
"I think we as Democrats have done a poor job of really clearly communicating those differences to the voters," said former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings, co-chair of the LEAD task force. "I think sometimes we get caught up on focusing on a particular bloc of people or group of people, when we need to communicate to all of the voters in Florida."
Nelson also defended the party's bench of local officials, saying it isn't as thin as some contend.
"We need to build more of a bench, but yes, look at the horses that we have in the stable," Nelson said.
Nelson pointed to members of the party's congressional delegation, including U.S. Reps. Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach, Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Weston, Patrick Murphy of Jupiter and recently elected Gwen Graham of Tallahassee.
The task force is expected to announce its findings in June at the 2015 Leadership Blue weekend, formerly known as the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner.
TWEET OF THE WEEK: "A reader has just emailed to inform me that #marriageequality in Florida is the next step toward the New World Order." -- Dan Sweeney (@Daniel_Sweeney), a reporter for the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
