With the economy sputtering, state analysts will gather Oct. 11 and dish out bad budget news.
Amy Baker, coordinator of the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research, said Wednesday that earlier projections of general-revenue growth this year and during the 2012-13 fiscal year will drop "fairly significantly.''
That means more difficult budget choices for lawmakers when they start the 2012 legislative session in January -- though Baker said things won't be as bad as during this spring's session, when lawmakers faced a $3.6 billion shortfall.
"I believe that you will be looking at another tight session,'' she said during a presentation to the state's Low Income Pool Council, a group that works on Medicaid-related funding issues.
Analysts, including Baker and representatives of the governor's office, House and Senate, are scheduled to meet Oct. 11 to revise general-revenue estimates. Those estimates play a crucial role because lawmakers use them as a basis for knowing how much money will be available to spend.
Earlier projections said general revenue would increase $1.2 billion, or 5.5 percent, this fiscal year and $1.7 billion, or 7.1 percent, during 2012-13. That helped lead to a recent report indicating the state would be able to meet expected needs in 2012-13, with nearly $274 million left over.
But Baker told the council Wednesday that forecasts have changed as the state and nation have gone through a turbulent economic period in August and September.
"Things are changing on us as we've gone through the last month and a half,'' she said.
Some of the problems are now familiar in Florida, including a high unemployment rate, a housing market clogged by foreclosures and relatively slow population growth.
But other issues are more global, such as the financial problems in Greece and other European countries that have spooked markets, and Washington's messy handling of extending the nation's debt limit.
Baker said the combination of factors drove down consumer "sentiment" nationally about the health of the economy.
"In August, it just plummeted,'' she said.
