A Mason-Dixon poll released Monday by Ron Sachs Communications reveals President Barack Obama is facing serious challenges in his efforts to win Florida in his 2012 re-election bid.
The poll finds Obama is trailing two of the leading potential Republican candidates. Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts leads Obama, taking 48 percent to Obamas 43 percent. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, who moved to Florida last year, has a similar lead, beating Obama 49 percent to 44 percent.
President Obama's hopes for re-election will either be warmed or eclipsed by the Sunshine State, said Ron Sachs, president and CEO of the firm that bears his name. Already, it's clear that he has considerable work to do to make his incumbency an asset, rather than a liability, in a Florida that has drifted more conservative than even four years ago.
The poll finds that Obama is upside down in Florida, with 43 percent approving his performance while 51 percent disapprove it. Despite those figures, Obama leads two other possible Republican hopefuls in the poll. He leads businessman Donald Trump 48 percent to 40 percent. But he does his best in the poll against former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, taking a majority of those surveyed -- 51 percent to her 39 percent.
Mason-Dixon and Sachs Communications also took a poll of likely Republican primary voters that finds Romney, who placed second in the states 2008 Republican presidential primary behind eventual GOP nominee U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, leads the potential 2012 primary field. Romney took 23 percent while Huckabee, who placed fourth in Florida in 2008, is in second with 18 percent. Trump took third with 13 percent while former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia placed fourth with 11 percent. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty was in fifth in the poll with 8 percent. Despite her high national profile, Palin placed sixth in the poll with 5 percent. Gov. Mitch Daniels was in seventh in the poll with 4 percent, slightly ahead of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas who had 3 percent. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and conservative former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania tied for ninth with 1 percent. Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi garnered less than one-half of 1 percent, while 13 percent of those surveyed were undecided.
Governor Mitt Romney is the early favorite most likely benefiting from his high name recognition following his 2008 presidential run, said Brad Coker, a managing director for Mason-Dixon. As more candidates announce and more voters begin paying attention, expect the race in Florida to become much more competitive.
Other announced and potential candidates include former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, businessman Herman Cain, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah, former Gov. Gary Johnson of New Mexico, activist Fred Karger, former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore of Alabama, former Gov. George Pataki of New York, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Gov. Bob Riley of Alabama and former Gov. Buddy Roemer of Louisiana.
The poll of 800 registered voters was taken between April 4 and April 7 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent. The poll of 400 likely Republican voters was taken at the same time and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
