John Morgan and supporters of Amendment 2 should take heed of a WFLA/Survey USA poll released this week. Amendment 2 scores 51 percent support, 33 percent opposition and needs three out of five undecided voters to get the 60 percent needed to pass.
Amendment 2 now has a majority of Republicans and a majority of seniors against it. Thats not good, especially as those two groups are more likely to vote than Democrats, independents and older voters in off-year elections.
Geography could also pose a problem for Amendment 2. It does well in Southeast Florida -- but it should be doing well there. The amendment is polling badly in Southwest Florida which is to be expected. But its also fading in Central Florida. Amendment 2 needs to do well in Orlando and the Tampa Bay area to pass.
Strangely, Amendment 2 is in good shape in North Florida. The poll shows the amendment doing well in both Northeast and Northwest Florida, two of the most conservative and Republican-leaning parts of the state. The clock is starting to tick but this could offer opponents of Amendment 2 a golden opportunity to knock it out for good. Groups like Dont Let Florida Go to Pot would be well-advised to run TV and radio ads in Pensacola, Panama City, Tallahassee, Gainesville, Ocala and Jacksonville featuring prominent Republicans who oppose Amendment 2 like Jeb Bush and Adam Putnam. That would help move some conservatives and Republicans back in line.
In recent weeks, Amendment 2 supporters have been stunned that the proposal has lost so much traction in the polls. Part of that comes from some early polls asking about medical marijuana in general and not Amendment 2 in particular. But part of the change comes from opponents of Amendment 2 wisely choosing not to argue against the merits of medical marijuana in general. Instead, they have stuck to the flaws of Amendment 2, claiming there are too many loopholes for comfort.
Morgan hasnt helped things by being the public face of Amendment 2. Whatever good he did for Amendment 2 before was undermined by the damaging video of himself cursing and talking about his own marijuana use at a rally. He certainly looked foolish and there are accusations that he was inebriated. Crossing the state on a bus tour to push Amendment 2, Morgans refusal to get off the stage is seriously hurting his own cause.
Supporters of Amendment 2 have less than four weeks to turn things around. They have to corral undecided voters, try to get some seniors and Republicans back in the fold and bolster their support in Central Florida. If thats not done, Amendment 2 is likely to just fall short of the 60 percent needed to pass.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
