Alan Grayson rode into Congress in 2008 with searing, vitriolic attacks on the Bush administration and Capitol Hill Republicans.
Grayson's anger is still there, but the votes appear to be going against him as he seeks re-election in Central Florida's closely fought 8th Congressional District.
A new Sunshine State News Poll shows Grayson trailing Republican challenger Daniel Webster by 7 points, 43-36. That's a 16-point drop from Grayson's 2008 total, when he garnered 52 percent of the vote to knock off Rep. Ric Keller.
The one constant between 2008 and 2010 is "change." Barack Obama and Grayson ran successfully on that theme in 2008. But "change" is on the Republicans' side this year, and Grayson's rhetorical fusillades are sputtering.
"I think Grayson lost the election this week. His 'draft dodger' and 'Taliban Dan' ads just opened the pursestrings for Webster," said Tom Tillison, an Orlando area tea party activist.
Grayson's aggressive campaign style enthralled Democrats and swayed independents in 2008, when he ran against a Republican incumbent who was viewed as reneging on a term-limits pledge.
Hammering away at an increasingly unpopular Iraq war and "profiteering" defense contractors, Grayson portrayed himself as a fiscal watchdog looking out for taxpayers' interests.
Upon election, Grayson co-authored an amendment with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, calling for an investigation of the Federal Reserve Bank. The populist measure won the support of such rock-ribbed Florida Republicans as Reps. Bill Posey and Adam Putnam.
But Grayson also signed on to the Democratic leadership's big-spending agenda -- and veered far leftward, a la the quixotic Dennis Kucinich.
Grayson accused fellow moderate Democrats of suffering from "Stockholm Syndrome," held hostage under a GOP spell.
He questioned the administration's military policy in Afghanistan, asking, "Why is it that we have to occupy another country? This is an 18th century strategy being employed against a 14th century enemy."
He called on President Obama to fire White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, saying Gibbs "belongs on Fox (News)."
He even criticized the House health-care bill, which was authored by Democrats. When he complained about a health-care "holocaust," Grayson upset Jewish leaders -- and he is a Jew.
Amid a growing perception that Grayson doesn't play well with others -- including those from his own party -- the freshman congressman appears to be losing on style points, as well.
Increasingly, Grayson, a native New Yorker and a lawyer, has marginalized himself with smarmy, out-of-context TV ads that have been rated "false" by media outlets.
"The way he's spending his money has negated his (financial) advantage," said Andy Sere, spokesman for the Republican National Congressional Committee. "Ads are produced on a whim -- more to generate controversy and attention on Alan Grayson, rather than delivering a coherent message."
Some strategists suggest that Grayson is simply shoring up his base of support and bolstering his name recognition. But with a 51 percent negative rating in the Sunshine State News Poll, Grayson's name doesn't count for much among a majority of voters.
Democrats in Washington know how crucial Grayson's seat is in this election season, when control of the House hangs in the balance. If the congressman has occasionally wandered off the reservation, party bosses are forgiving because they can ill afford to let the district return to Republican hands.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has committed to buy about $300,000 in TV advertising in the Orlando market, amid speculation that President Obama will swing through CD 8 before or after an Oct. 12 campaign stop in Miami.
"We're working with national-level surrogates," confirmed Sam Drzymala, a Grayson spokesman.
The White House did not return a call seeking comment.
For all his hyper-partisan bombast, Grayson is not considered the most progressive congressman from Florida. Five other Democratic members -- Corrine Brown, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Kendrick Meek, Kathy Castor and Alcee Hastings -- are rated more liberal by the National Journal.
Still, Grayson has a 100 percent rating from the AFL-CIO, the SEIU and the American Federation of Government Employees. His voting record earned a "zero" from the American Conservative Union.
Grayson's record and his antics were enough to launch a TEA (Taxed Enough Already) Party candidate in the district and inspire several tea-leaning hopefuls in this year's crowded GOP primary. Some have suggested that Grayson himself set up the TEA gambit to drain votes from his Republican rival, but Grayson denies the allegation and no paper trail has proven it thus far.
Grayson figures to benefit from demographics as CD 8 continues to add Democrats and minorities. That trend, however, may not be enough to save him in this year of frothy tea-party activism and rising GOP turnout.
Though newcomer Grayson attracted a large share of independents in 2008, the Sunshine State News Poll found that many unaligned voters are swinging back to Republicans this fall as anti-incumbent fever continues to rage.
"There's a tea-party tsunami out there," says Tom Gaitens, Florida director for FreedomWorks, a tea organizing group in Washington, D.C.
Tillison agrees. "Tea partiers are more motivated than ever," he said, noting that 1,000 tea activists are scheduled to walk portions of CD 8 for Webster on Oct. 9.
"Grayson has become the darling of the far left. That might play in Los Angeles, but it doesn't play in Central Florida," he said.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
