Most congressional races in Florida simply arent competitive. With the exceptions of Joe Garcia and Steve Southerland, congressional incumbents will win across Florida with ease next week. But there might be a long shot that could pay off in Central Florida.
Alan Grayson sits in a pretty secure Democratic district but things can change in an off-year election. Despite having a strong registration advantage, around 70,000 or so, Democrats barely went out to vote in what became this district in 2010. By the time the votes were cast, only 2,500 more Democrats voted than Republicans. Grayson himself can testify to this -- but then he was utterly demolished by Republican Dan Webster.
If something like that happens again, Republican candidate Carol Platt could benefit. Platt is relatively unknown but a poll her campaign took earlier this month showed her within striking distance against Grayson, down by only 5 percent.
Graysons certainly acting like Platt has a chance of beating him. In recent days, he has warned his backers that Republicans are targeting him. After ignoring Platt for most of the campaign, Grayson is now warning his supporters that she is smearing him and banging the drums that she is a threat.
Complicating things for Grayson is his messy divorce. Despite Grayson being one of the wealthiest members of Congress, news emerged this week that his estranged wife and kids are on welfare. This follows his estranged wife charging him with domestic abuse which prompted Grayson to release a video of the incident which cleared him.The charge was dismissed.
Platt hasnt really gone after Graysons personal life but she did speak about domestic violence at the Osceola Womens Luncheon on Thursday. Its a pretty striking contrast with Graysons problems.
To be sure, Platt is an underdog. She will need a perfect storm to catch Grayson and, though 2014 is shaping up as a good year for Republicans, it does not seem on par with 2010. Still, theres a path to victory in sight for Platt, even if it is a narrow one that allows no room for missteps. If the Republican tide is strong enough on Tuesday, Platt has a slim chance of pulling off the upset, something that would have been unthinkable only weeks ago.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
