After Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum battled to a draw in the Iowa caucus on Tuesday night, the campaign turns to New Hampshire, which will hold the first presidential primary on Tuesday next week.
While Romney and Santorum both took 24.6 percent -- Romney finished 8 votes ahead of Santorum when the smoke cleared -- to continue their presidential bids, some of the Republican hopefuls, namely Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, are reassessing and may pull the plug on their campaigns altogether.
At 24.6 percent, Romney took less of the Iowa electorate this time around than he did in 2008, when he pulled 25.2 percent to take second behind Mike Huckabee. With Perry and Bachmann likely heading to the sidelines, Romney needs to appeal to conservatives and hope they do not solidly line up behind Santorum.
Still, Romney has some advantages and, according to a poll from Suffolk University/7NEWS released on Tuesday afternoon, leads the pack of Republican presidential hopefuls in New Hampshire.
The poll finds Romney running away with the primary in the Granite State with 43 percent, followed by Ron Paul in second with 16 percent and Jon Huntsman in third with 10 percent. Newt Gingrich takes fourth with 9 percent, followed by Santorum with 5 percent and Perry and Bachmann lagging behind with 2 percent each.
Gingrich had been second in New Hampshire polls last month but is showing signs of fading in the Granite State.
Newt Gingrich is struggling to revive his campaign in New Hampshire, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, in a statement released on Tuesday. But Rick Santorum now trails Gingrich by only 4 points, and if he surpasses Gingrich and knocks him into fifth place, it would be fatal for Gingrich.
The poll of 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters was taken on Jan. 1-2 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.
Romney could get a boost on Wednesday when he is expected to receive the backing of John McCain, the Arizona senator who won the New Hampshire Republican primary in 2000 and 2008.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
Santorum should receive a boost from his strong showing in Iowa and he has pledged to campaign in New Hampshire and South Carolina. While the former senator from Pennsylvania has focused heavily on Iowa, he does have grassroots operations set up in both of those states and his showing in the Hawkeye State should lead to increased fundraising.
Following Iowa, Santorum--who was ignored by the national media until the last week or so--will garner more media attention and scrutiny. Santorum will also draw more fire from his opponents.
The team behind Ron Paul downplayed the fact that Santorum--and not their own candidate--placed second behind Romney in Iowa. Paul placed third, some three percent behind the other two Republican presidential hopefuls.
The Ron Paul campaign is celebrating a great victory tonight, insisted Jesse Benton, Pauls campaign chairman. There were three tickets out of Iowa, and Ron Paul earned one of them.
One of the three tickets, the one belonging to Rick Santorum, is a dead-end due to Santorums weak fundraising and lack of national campaign organization, added Benton. This is now a two way race between establishment candidate Mitt Romney and the candidate for real change, Ron Paul.
Ron Paul has a top notch national organization, tremendous fundraising prowess, and unequaled enthusiasm among his volunteers and supporters, continued Benton. Dr. Paul has taken the first step towards earning the delegates it will take to be the GOP nominee and is the only candidate not named Mitt Romney with the ability to do so.
Ron Paul is now off to New Hampshire, South Carolina, Louisiana, Nevada, Maine, North Dakota, Washington, Colorado, and beyond, Benton said in conclusion. See you on the campaign trail.
Benton ignored the state that holds its primary after South Carolina--namely delegate rich Florida where Paul flopped badly back in 2008 taking less than 3.25 percent of the vote to finish a distant fifth place.
Finishing in fourth place with 13 percent, Gingrich showed, as the results came in, that he intends to be more aggressive in New Hampshire.
We always knew that this was going to be a tough race and no matter what the result is tonight, we are confident that the team of supporters, volunteers, and staff we have assembled is going to carry Newt all the way to the White House, Michael Krull, Gingrichs campaign manager, wrote to supporters in an email sent out on Tuesday night as results came in from Iowa. We have been working tirelessly in Iowa, crisscrossing the state and talking to people about Newts plan to rebuild the America we love. After tonight, the first votes will be cast and we will be taking our message to New Hampshire, South Carolina, and beyond.
Krull took off the gloves to hammer former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, who is leading polls of New Hampshire, which will hold its primary next Tuesday.
In a few hours, Newt will be addressing the country in Iowa after the results are known. In his address he will make clear the choice we face as a party for whom we want to nominate to take on President Obama, added Krull. It is a choice between a bold conservative in Newt Gingrich, whose leadership ended 40 years of Democratic rule in the House of Representatives, balanced the budget for the first time in a generation, reformed welfare and enacted policies that led to the creation of 11 million new jobs, and a timid Massachusetts moderate who as governor raised taxes on business, signed taxpayer-funded abortions into law, and appointed liberal judges to appease Democrats.
It is between a bold conservative leader in Newt Gingrich, whose plan to create jobs has been praised by the Wall Street Journal and endorsed by the architect of Ronald Reagans economic plan as the best of any candidate, continued Krull, and a timid Massachusetts moderate whose plan has been described in Forbes Magazine as virtually identical to Obamas failed policy.
Gingrich took aim at Romney in Wednesdays edition of the New Hampshire Union Leader, the iconic conservative newspaper that endorsed the former congressional leader in the autumn. In a full page ad, Gingrich continued pounding Romney as a timid Massachusetts moderate. Gingrich also shows signs of wanting to continue in South Carolina. Earlier in the week, the Gingrich camp unveiled the backing of South Carolina state House Majority Leader Kenny Bingham.
Perry showed signs of pulling out of the race after finishing fifth in Iowa with 10 percent of the vote.
"With the voters' decision tonight in Iowa, I've decided to return to Texas, assess the results of tonight's caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race," Perry said as the results came in.
The Perry team has canceled events in South Carolina, fueling the speculation that he will bow out of the race.
Despite taking 5 percent of the vote--and barely taking more votes than she received when she won the Iowa Republican straw poll in August--Bachmann indicated that she would continue her campaign. At the same time, Bachmann campaign manager Keith Nahigian would not confirm that his candidate would continue her bid.
While Bachmann had counted on a strong showing in the Hawkeye State to propel her bid for the Republican presidential nomination, she is--for the moment--now turning her eyes to South Carolina which is set to hold its primary on Jan. 21 after New Hampshire has its say on Jan. 10.
On Tuesday, the Bachmann team announced their candidate would head to the Palmetto State to campaign in Fort Mill on Wednesday and Friday, and Greenville and Spartanburg on Thursday.
Huntsman took a pass on Iowa--and garnered less than 1 percent in the Hawkeye State. He has focused on New Hampshire and will continue to tour the Granite State this week as he looks to break through and gain some momentum.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859
