Under Leslie Dougher, the Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) scored some big wins a month ago as Rick Scott claimed a second term. Now Dougher is fighting to keep her job.
Dougher faces some top-notch challengers as she tries to stay as RPOF chair. Blaise Ingoglia, now a Florida House member after his time as vice chair of the RPOF, is looking to knock Dougher off. So is Eric Miller who Dougher beat earlier this year to lead the RPOF. Kurt Kelly, who has been pretty quiet after losing to Dan Webster in a congressional primary back in 2010, sent emails out on Tuesday that he plans to run for RPOF chair.
But Dougher has a card up her sleeve that her opponents lack: Scotts support. Scotts not exactly the most popular Republican with the GOP leadership in certain counties. He did, after all, beat Bill McCollum in 2010 and he is not the most charming of politicians by any means. But Scott did beat Charlie Crist and his team has been increasingly active in shaping the party. With Scott being able to name RPOF delegates, thats a big plus for Dougher.
Ingoglia is an odd spot. Hes popular with conservatives, though he could end up dividing them with Miller, and he does know how to use technology and new media as his Government Gone Wild series shows. Ingoglia has a strong base of support around the state from his time at the RPOF. But he also clearly has the most to lose. Tallahassee wont forgive him for rocking the boat and will keep a wary eye on Ingoglia as he starts his time in the House.
Besides splitting the conservative vote, Ingoglia and Miller have the burden of making the argument of why Dougher needs to go after a good election for Republicans. Scott won a close race but the other Cabinet members won in blow outs, a basic repeat of 2010. Republicans picked up six seats in the Florida House and held several in congressional races, picking up a seat in South Florida while losing one in the northern part of the state. With the exceptions of Ellyn Bogdanoff and Steve Southerland, most Florida Republicans have reasons to smile after the elections.
Ingoglia, Miller and Kelly do have one argument to make, asking if Dougher will be able to lead the GOP to victory in 2016. Florida will be a swing state once again and both sides will need to win it if they want to claim the White House. Ingoglia, Kelly and Miller would be well-advised to ask if Dougher has what it takes to keep Hillary Clinton out of the Oval Office, though they will both have to show they posses that ability.
But for the moment Ingoglia, Kelly and Miller are more likely to cut each others throats than beat Dougher. With Scott and his team and a good election behind her, Dougher starts off with the edge to keep her RPOF post.
One thing to keep in mind. Dougher needs 50 percent support to win on the first ballot. If she falls short, her opponents could unite against her in the run-off. The question is who of Dougher's opponents would emerge--and if they would be able to untie the other challengers behind them.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
