Florida politics is in something of a quiet period as the second half of 2013 starts -- but eyes are starting to turn toward 2014 which promises, as is customary in the state, to be an exciting campaign season.
Gov. Rick Scott did what he had to do in the first half of the year. While there were some rough spots, Scott pushed his priorities through the Legislature, namely increasing teacher salaries and eliminating the sales tax on manufacturing equipment.
As Floridas economy rebounds, Scott is starting to move up in the polls, though a poll released two weeks ago still shows him down 10 points to possible Democratic challengers Charlie Crist and Bill Nelson. Still, in the first half of 2013, Scott secured his Republican base. Now he has to start winning over independents. Scott still hasnt named a replacement for former Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll, who resigned in March. When he picks a new lieutenant governor, he might tip his hand on his focus for 2014.
But if Scott had some successes the first half of 2013, so did former Gov. Crist, who is increasingly emerging as his likely Democratic opponent. Despite having been a Republican until 2010 and only joining up with the Democrats at the end of 2012, Crist spent the first half of the year winning over members of his new party. There are signs his efforts at wooing Democrats are working. While former state Senate Democratic leader Nan Rich does not appear to be a threat to Crist, former state CFO Alex Sink, who lost to Scott in the closest gubernatorial election in Florida history in 2010, is increasingly looking like she wants to try again.
While Scott can expect a tough battle in 2014, the three other members of the Florida Cabinet -- Attorney General Pam Bondi, state CFO Jeff Atwater and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam -- should be able to cruise next year. Democrats have yet to field a challenger against either Bondi or Atwater, while Thad Hamilton, who used to sit on the Broward County Soil and Water Conservation District, is trying again against Putnam. Hamilton went nowhere in 2010 and Putnam shouldnt have to worry about him in his 2014 calculations. Look for Democrats to try to recruit candidates to challenge the incumbents in 2014, but these will be tough races for the Democrats to win no matter who they produce. All three of the Republicans won handily in 2010.
While neither of Floridas two U.S. senators has to defend his seat in 2014, there will be some interesting congressional races already taking shape. Gwen Graham, the daughter of Bob Graham who served in the U.S. Senate and as governor, has gained attention from national Democrats as she looks to unseat U.S. Rep. Steve Southerland, R-Fla. But Graham could face a major primary foe in former state Senate Democratic Leader Al Lawson, who ran for the seat twice before. Look for more attention on this race in the second half of the year. This one will have national implications. Dems badly want to win back the U.S. House.
Democrats might have other opportunities to pick up congressional seats in Florida, but it will be tough. In the first half of 2013, no major Democratic candidate has filed to run against the likes of U.S. Rep. Dan Webster, R-Fla., or U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla. Based on their wins in 2012, the two incumbents start off as heavy favorites to prevail in 2014. Attorney Jessica Ehrlich has filed to run again against U.S. Rep. Bill Young, R-Fla. Young beat her by a solid margin the last time out but, if he retires, Ehrlich has a chance to pick up this seat for the Democrats. Unfortunately for Ehrlich and the Democrats, Young shows no signs of leaving Congress.
Republicans are looking to pick up two congressional seats in South Florida. Freshman U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia, D-Fla., stumbled badly in the first half of 2013 and his chief of staff resigned after being named in a voter fraud scandal. A crowd of Republican challengers is already lining up to oust Garcia next year. U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla., is also drawing a crowded field of primary opponents. Both of them will be top Republican targets in 2014. The second half of 2013 should see Garcia and Murphy ramp up their efforts to keep their seats while the Republican challengers try to establish a pecking order.
Based on the first half of 2013, there should be a wealth of competitive and interesting battles for Florida House seats but few, if any, for seats in the Florida Senate. There isnt a single open Florida Senate seat come 2014 and incumbents from both parties have already filed to run again. There are already some intriguing Florida House battles shaping up, with some vulnerable incumbents, former members looking to get back to Tallahassee and interesting fights for open seats. Look for more of the same in the second half of 2013, with most of the action on the House side.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
