While Big-Name GOPers Head to the Sidelines, 2012 is Not a Lock for Obama

Republicans almost never nominate dark horses for the presidency. While it happened with some regularity in the Gilded Age with the rises of Rutherford B. Hayes, James A. Garfield and Benjamin Harrison, the GOP usually relied on front-runners and familiar faces during the 20th century to carry their standard, with a few exceptions (Warren G. Harding and Wendell Willkie come to mind).

With former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee holding off on launching a presidential bid and joining everyone from Haley Barbour to John Thune to Jeb Bush on the sidelines, pundits are starting to kick the remaining GOP field, insisting that none of the candidates will be able to defeat Barack Obama in 2012. From his perch on his MSNBC show, on Monday, former U.S. Rep. Joe Scarborough moaned that Huckabee was the only candidate who could give Obama a challenge.

Obamas a favorite to win a second term, to be sure. Most incumbent presidents are. With the exception of Jimmy Carter, the last Democratic president to be kicked out of the White House was Grover Cleveland back in 1888 and he won a majority of the popular vote against Benjamin Harrison. But with the economy in the tank, Republicans should not be ready to run up the white flag by any means -- even with a less impressive primary field -- and they should take inspiration from an unlikely source: Bill Clinton.

In early 1991, with the Gulf War being won and the Soviet bloc collapsing, George H.W. Bush looked invulnerable. Big-name Democrats like Mario Cuomo, Jay Rockefeller, Al Gore and Richard Gephardt stayed out of the presidential bid while Clinton beat an unimpressive field with the likes of Jerry Brown and Paul Tsongas to win the Democratic nomination. Clinton was largely unknown -- and with the help of Ross Perot and a bad economy, he was able to beat Bush in 1992. Of course, Bush faced a conservative primary challenge from Pat Buchanan in 1992 and nobody of that stature has emerged to take on Obama in the Democratic primaries. But history shows -- even if flawed candidates like Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and unknowns like Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum are fighting for the Republican nomination -- 2012 is no lock by any means.