Steve Schale: Why Charlie Crist Won't Win

Democratic insider Steve Schale posted a blog this morning: Sorry, Charlie.

In it he outlines why the math just isn't adding up for Charlie Crist since Kendrick Meek's solid victory in the Democratic Primary.

From the blog: "For Crist to win the U.S. Senate race, he would need a formula that looked something like this: 33 percent of the Democratic vote; 33 percent of the Republican vote; 50 percent of the NPA vote. This formula would get him a vote total of 36 to 37 percent, a likely win scenario in a highly competitive three-way race, where all three candidates are scoring in the 30s.

"Here is one problem:Rubio is limiting him to 20 percent of the Republican vote. If Rubio keeps him at 20 percent of the GOP vote, Crist needs to get 45 percent of the Democratic vote in order to win, and according to the latest PPP poll, Crist is only at 38 percent today with Democrats."

Schale continues: "Democrats who support Crist keep saying to me, 'well, we just need Dems to vote for Crist,' but that just isn't going to happen in the margins he needs to win.

"Today, Rubio has the clearest path to victory, but once Democrats figure out that Meek is their only option, his path will get much more clear as well."