PPP Poll: If Jeb Bush is Out, Expect Close Battle in 2012 GOP Primary to Take on Bill Nelson

A poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP), a firm with connections to national Democrats, shows that Florida Republicans can expect a close primary battle in the contest to take on Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

The poll found former Gov. Jeb Bush remained beloved by Florida Republicans -- with 83 percent approval compared to only 11 percent disapproval and swamping the primary field to take Nelson on in 2012. Bush took a whopping 72 percent if he ran in the U.S. Senate primary -- compared to 6 percent for outgoing Attorney General Bill McCollum; 3 percent apiece for U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, incoming Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll, outgoing U.S. Sen. George LeMieux and U.S. Rep. Connie Mack; 1 percent for Senate President Mike Haridopolos, and former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner won the backing of less than one half of 1 percent.

But with Bush widely expected not to run in 2012, the primary picture becomes muddled. When Bush was taken out of the equation, 31 percent of Florida Republicans remained unsure of whom to back. Mack led with 15 percent, with McCollum -- who ran twice before for the U.S. Senate and lost the gubernatorial primary in August --right behind him at 14 percent. Other candidates were also in the mix as LeMieux placed third with 11 percent, Carroll took fourth with 10 percent, Haridopolos came in fifth with 9 percent, and Buchanan stood at 7 percent. Hasner again trailed the field with 3 percent.

Other candidates who could run include U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney and businessman and retired Army officer Mike McCalister.

The poll of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted between Dec. 17-20 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.