Political Consultant: Here's Why Pew Poll Lights Up Mitt Romney

The new Pew Research Center poll -- placing Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by 4 points -- is perhaps the strongest evidence to date that the president has paid a political price for his lackluster performance in the first presidential debate, the debate closest to the hearts of voters.

The debate on the economy.

The poll, conducted from Thursday through Sunday and released Monday, shows the former Massachusetts governor leading Obama among likely voters nationwide, 49 percent to 45 percent. It stands in stark contrast to Pew's mid-September poll after both parties' conventions, when Obama led by 8 points among likely voters. That represents a dramatic 12-point swing in a single month.

Washington-based political consultant A. Ferris Guiletti admitted to Sunshine State Newslate Monday that he and others close to the presidential race didn't believe the debate -- even a bad performance by either candidate -- could result in such a shift among likely voters. "We were wrong," he said.

"Certainly the numbers are reflecting the importance to voters of the main issue in the debate, the economy. They are looking for a candidate who is confident he can turn the American economy around, harness the national debt and return hope to their lives. They want a president who will fight for those things. Mitt Romney looked strong, looked like he had an idea; Obama stayed back on his heels.

"My feeling is that Obama needs a home run in the foreign policy debate," Guiletti said.

Not all post-debate polls display such a large Romney lead as Pew's does.

Republican-leaning Rasmussen found Romney leading by 2 points in its Saturday release. That was based on findings from an Oct. 3-5 tracking period. But in the Rasmussen Monday poll, conducted entirely after the debate and partially following the release of Fridays encouraging jobs report, the two candidates were tied again.

Gallup reported on Monday that Obama and Romney were tied in the three days immediately following the debate, after Obama had led by 5 in the three days prior. But on Monday, Gallups tracking which is based on a 7-day rolling average had Obama leading by 5 again.