Look for Florida to Be 'the Decider' ... 'the Big Kahuna' ... in GOP's Election 2012

It's nearly Florida's time to shine. And if you listen to the nation's talking heads, the Sunshine State GOP has what Phil Musser, a former director of the Republican Governors Association and a frequent consultant in the state, calls "the real chance to be the decider."

In the 2012 election's early and highly speculative stages, strategists see Iowa and South Carolina as potentially good fits for Rick Perry, while Mitt Romney could do well in New Hampshire and Nevada.

Under that scenario, Florida "has the real chance to be the decider," Musser said. For now, he said, "it's very wide open."

A Saturday story in the Huffington Post pointed out that "Florida has large numbers of every type of Republican voter. They are spread hundreds of miles apart, in expensive media markets." And unlike other early-voting states, Florida's primary is open only to people who have been registered as Republicans for many weeks. That keeps independents from influencing the nomination.

It's quite plausible, says the story, that front-runners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney could roughly divide the first four contests, in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina: "If that happens, Florida could prove the virtual tie-breaker, a prize so big in a state so central to presidential elections that the loser might struggle to stay afloat."

"My guess is that Florida is going to be the big kahuna," said Brad Coker, a Florida-based pollster for Mason-Dixon which conducts surveys nationwide. Florida is much larger, diverse and expensive than the other four early-voting states, he told the Post, thus rewarding the type of campaigning a Republican must do around the country to oust President Barack Obama in November 2012.
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