Larry Sabato: Republicans Should Dominate in November

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, one of the most respected political pundits in the nation, released his latest take on the November elections and is predicting a big gain for Republicans at the national level.

2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition, wrote Sabato on Thursday. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on whether, or how quickly, the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate.

But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer, he continued. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by Nov. 2. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats self-proclaimed Recovery Summer' has become a term of derision, and to most voters -- fair or not -- it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.

Obamas job approval ratings have drifted down well below 50 percent in most surveys, he wrote. The generic ballot that asks likely voters whether they will cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans this year has moved increasingly in the GOP direction. While far less important, other controversies such as the mosque debate and immigration policy have made the climate worse for Democrats. Republican voters are raring to vote, their energy fueled by anti-Obama passion and concern over debt, spending, taxes, health care, and the size of government. Democrats are much less enthusiastic by almost every measure, and the Democratic bases turnout will lag. Plus, Democrats have won over 50 House seats in 2006 and 2008, many of them in Republican territory, so their exposure to any sort of GOP wave is high.

Sabato predicted the Republicans had a very strong opportunity to take control of the U.S. House.

Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net, wrote Sabato. This is a net number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obamas Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-vs.-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.

Sabato gave the Republicans worse odds for picking up the U.S. Senate but added they could be in solid shape to shake things up there.

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our longtime prediction of +7 seats, wrote Sabato. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on Nov. 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.

The state houses will provide the third leg of the Republicans 2010 victory, he continued. We have long suggested the GOP would gain a net +6 governorships. We now believe they will win +8. This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures, and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country.