In Jacksonville, Mike Hogan Will Face Alvin Brown in May to be Next Mayor

Jacksonville went to the polls on Tuesday to vote in the first round to see who will replace Mayor John Peyton. Republican and tea party favorite Mike Hogan, currently serving as the tax collector of Duval County, pulled way ahead of the field with 35 percent. But while that is enough to place Hogan in first, he did not come near 50 percent which is needed to avoid a runoff. With 62 percent of the vote counted, Republican Audrey Moran is ahead of Democrat Alvin Brown by less than 1 percentage point --22.6 percent to 21.8 percent. Republican Rick Mullaney was in fourth with 16.6 percent. Whoever places in second will take Hogan on in the runoff.

UPDATE: With 216 of 256 precincts in, Brown has moved into second place. He leads Moran by less than 600 votes. Moran and Mullaney have been at each other's throats the last few weeks. Looks like they could have damaged each other and let Brown move into second. Shades of Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt out in Iowa back in 2004, when those two candidates slashed each other to pieces allowing John Edwards to place second behind John Kerry?

UPDATE 2: With 245 of 256 precincts in, Brown has emerged as the challenger to Hogan. He has more than 24 percent while Moran stumbled into third with less than 22 percent. Hogan beat Brown by less than 10.5 percent -- meaning the Democrat has a good deal of work to do in order to catch up. Look for both camps to woo moderate Republicans Moran and Mullaney over the next few weeks -- but, unless he stumbles badly, Hogan is the clear favorite to be the next mayor.