If John Thune Runs for President in 2012, Iowa is Key

In 2004, John Thune pulled off a major upset -- knocking off U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle to represent South Dakota in Washington. Now Thune appears increasingly likely to attempt another upset by winning the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.

Thune, who will be re-elected in November as he does not face any opposition,is looking at making a bid in 2012 and, as this interview with the Rapid City Journal, shows, if he runs he is staking quite a bit on Iowa, home of the first caucuses.

For a while, it was fashionable to dismiss the Iowa caucuses in favor of the New Hampshire primaries. George H.W. Bush won in Iowa but the eventual winner, Ronald Reagan, carried New Hampshire -- and the GOP nomination -- in 1980. In 1988, Pat Robertson won the Iowa caucus on the Republican side and Dick Gephardt carried it on the Democratic side, but New Hampshire backed Bush and Michael Dukakis who went on to be their partys presidential candidates. In 1992, in the Democratic race, Iowa backed favorite son Tom Harkin while New Hampshire went with Paul Tsongas from Lowell, Mass., just across the border from the Granite State.

But something happened in 1996. Bob Dole won in Iowa while New Hampshire backed Pat Buchanan for the Republican nomination. This was followed in 2000. On the Democratic side, Al Gore beat Bill Bradley in Iowa and New Hampshire, but Bradley did better in New Hampshire. While George W. Bush won Iowa and the Republican nod, John McCain won in New Hampshire. John Kerry ran off with Iowa and New Hampshire in 2004.

There were mixed results in 2008. Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa but she took New Hampshire. While Mike Huckabee won in Iowa on the Republican side, McCain once again took New Hampshire -- and this time won the Republican nomination.

Thune is not as well known as some of his potential rivals. But Iowa responds well to retail campaigning, one of Thunes specialties, and the state has propelled underdogs like Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, Robertson and Huckabee before. Coming from a neighboring state, Thune has to put all his eggs in Iowas basket. The problem is there are a number of potential presidential candidates who will be doing the same thing.