GOP Needs Florida in 2016, Insists National Pundit

Jonathan Chait over at New York Magazine has an interesting argument that the Electoral College is trending in the Democrats favor and he points to Florida as the ultimate proof of that trend. Chait argues that Republicans cant afford to lose Florida in 2016 and cites the increased number of Hispanic voters who are leaning toward the Democrats:

The Democratic swing-state advantage appears all over the map, but its locus is probably the quintessential swing state of Florida. Since the run-up to the 2012 election, electoral analyst Nate Cohn has been tracking Floridas steady lurch toward the Democratic party.

Floridas rapid transformation has been masked by a pair of contradictory trends reflecting the states unusually heterodox political culture. Nationally, states with high numbers of Latino voters have trended Democratic, turning Nevada from a swing state to a Democratic-leaning one, and New Mexico from a leaning Democratic state to a solid one. Meanwhile, southern white voters have deepened their longstanding march toward the Republican party during the Obama years.

Florida has plenty of both southern white people (especially in its northern panhandle, which borders and culturally resembles Alabama) and Hispanics. The Latino vote is growing very fast in Florida. In 2000, Cohn points out, white voters cast 78 percent of the votes in an almost even election; in 2012, they cast just 67 percent. Mitt Romney only managed to keep the race there close because the white vote tilted so heavily in his partys direction. But the rapid growth of Floridas nonwhite electorate is continuing. On top of that, its possible that a candidate like Hillary Clinton could win back at least some of the white voters who disdained Obama.

Florida encapsulates the demographic trap encircling the Republican Party. They have deeply alienated Latino voters there, and the first step in the partys elites grand strategy to gain a hearing with them taking immigration policy off the table is nearly dead. Republicans right now would need a major electoral wave to win Florida, and without Florida, they have almost no viable path to prevail in a close election.

The entire piece can be read here.

H/T Politicalwire