Carlos Curbelo Leads Joe Garcia in New Poll

A new poll shows Miami Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo, the Republican nominee, has the edge on U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia, D-Fla.

The poll from Saint Leo University Polling Institute shows Curbelo taking 46 percent while Garcia garners 42 percent.

Congressman Garcia is in a weaker position than he may have hoped for with less than a month to go in the campaign, said Frank Orlando, a political science instructor at Saint Leo University. Curbelo, the Republican challenger, can take satisfaction in knowing that over twice as many voters view him as strongly favorable than strongly unfavorable.

Theres still time for Garcia to make a move, but he must court independent voters, Orlando added. Although demographics and a gradual shift in Cuban political identity are making the district more Democratic, Garcia must also win a greater share of Republican votes, a hallmark of his successful 2012 campaign.

The poll of 400 likely voters was taken from Oct. 1-Oct. 6 and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percent. More than an eighth--54 of the 400 voter interviews--were conducted in Spanish.