Bill Young's Former Seat a 'Tossup' while Patrick Murphy's Chances Improve in Sabato's New Analysis

National pundit Larry Sabato peered through his Crystal Ball and offered his analysis on two congressional races in Florida. Sabato made the open contest for the seat which had been held by the late U.S. Rep. Bill Young, R-Fla., a tossup while moving U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphys, D-Fla., bid for a second term from tossup to leans Democratic. Sabato noted former Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner appears less likely to enter the GOP primary against Murphy:

Another seat that has become very competitive is that of the late Rep. Bill Young (R, FL-13), who sadly died last week shortly after announcing his retirement. Obama narrowly won this Tampa/St. Petersburg-area seat last year, and Democrats are hoping that Alex Sink, the former state chief financial officer who narrowly lost the 2010 gubernatorial race, will run. Attorney Jessica Ehrlich (D), who ran against Young in 2012, might not want to step aside, though. Theres a potential cast of thousands on the Republican side, which is led by two former local mayors, Rick Baker and Frank Hibbard, as well as the late Youngs son (Bill Jr.) and widow (Beverly). Young is being laid to rest Thursday, but expect the race to heat up soon thereafter. A special election to fill the Tossup seat, which will probably be held early next year, will generate tremendous national attention.

On the other side of Florida, weve long identified Rep. Patrick Murphy (D, FL-18), who beat the fiery ex-Rep. Allen West (R) in a vicious race last year, as perhaps the most vulnerable Democratic House incumbent in the country. We no longer believe that: Murphy has largely made all the right moves in his first year in Congress, and hes got an impressive $1.4 million cash on hand. Meanwhile, a field of nondescript Republican challengers is struggling to get traction, and a top potential Republican recruit, 2012 FL-22 nominee and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, appears to be leaning against running. This race now Leans Democratic.