Bill Nelson Jumps Ahead of Connie Mack in New Q-Poll

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., has jumped ahead of potential Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Connie Mack in a poll from Quinnipiac University released Thursday morning. Nelson takes 44 percent to Mack's 36 percent. Two polls taken earlier by Quinnipiac showed a dead heat, with Nelson leading by 2 percent in November and by 1 percent in January.

"President Barack Obama's surge in Florida is helping Senator Bill Nelson's re-election chances," said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Just as President Obama's lead in the presidential race in the Sunshine State is fueled by female voters, so too is Nelson's. He also is running better among several groups, including whites and Catholics and voters 50 to 64 years old."

As Brown noted, the poll found a gender gap. Male voters split evenly with 41 percent backing Nelson and the same number supporting Mack. Female voters lean toward Nelson, with 46 percent backing the Democrat incumbent to Mack's 32 percent.

Nelson garners 80 percent of Democrats while 7 percent of them are behind Mack. Despite his primary battle with former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux and businessman and retired Army Col. Mike McCallister, neither of whom were included in the poll, Mack gets the support of 75 percent of the Republicans surveyed while 9 percent are behind Nelson. Independents go toward Nelson, with 40 percent backing him to Mack's 30 percent.

The poll of 1,228 registered Florida voters was taken March 20-26 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.