Are Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal the 2016 Tim Pawlenty?

Over at the New Republic, Nate Cohn argues that Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. Cohn presents an interesting case for Walker as acceptable to a broad host of Republican primary voters. In the piece, Cohn offers a quick look at how the odds of Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. winning the GOP nod have dropped considerably. Cohn even compared them to one of the biggest flops of the 2012 contest, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota.

The piece can be read here and Cohns look at Jindal and Rubio is below:

The broadly appealing conservatives, like Bobby Jindal or Marco Rubio, earn their broad appeal at the expense of anyones passion: Theyre no ones first choice, and they start without an electoral base. To win, they would need to stand-out -- in debates or on the stump, or in the so-called invisible primary, where a candidate can rally the party establishment and build the campaign apparatus and media attention necessary to elevate themselves in the minds of voters. But the partys establishment is also factionalized -- no candidate succeeded in uniting it in either 2008 or 2012, even though Romney was a clear establishment favorite.

Early this year, it seemed like Rubio had a real chance to pull it off. The young, charismatic senator from Florida was an establishment savior, the physical manifestation of their political vision for winning national elections by appealing to Hispanics and young voters. Hed do so, they envisioned, without compromising on the partys core religious and business policies -- just immigration reform and tea party rhetoric. But immigration reform crashed and Rubio seemed unprepared to compete at the highest levels. His numbers have declined; hell struggle to regain the trust of the establishment.

So far, Rubio and Jindal look like theyre auditioning for the role of 2016s Tim Pawlenty -- a candidate the mainline establishment wished could take off, but someone who didnt have the chops to win either Iowa or New Hampshire, states where the tea party and moderates are at an advantage. Perhaps the most obvious alternative to Rubio is Jeb Bush. But its unclear whether the compassionate conservative message still plays with Republican primary voters, let alone whether Bush will run.