Alan Grayson, Free Tips on How to Poll Your District

Rep. Alan Grayson might want to call his polling people over to cash in on a few tips.

After Sunshine State News released its poll of the CD 8 race between incumbent Democrat Grayson and Republican challenger Dan Webster, Grayson either naive or desperate -- issued a press release, challenging its accuracy and validity.

The poll, incidentally, put Webster ahead of Grayson by 7 points.

In a nutshell, Grayson claimed the Oct. 26 poll was out of whack because a) too few Democrats were polled in a district in which Republicans are in the minority, and b) Voter Survey Service discounted voters under age 45, a strong group for Grayson.

Sunshine State News commissions Voter Survey Service of Harrisburg, Pa., to conduct its polls. Jim Lee, president of VSS, was gracious enough to explain the art, or science, of polling in CD 8.

Grayson, Lee said, does not understand the difference between registered voters and likely voters. Consider the following points:

1. Our ratio of Republicans and Democrats sampled (46 percent Rep 40 percent Dem 14 percent Ind.) is correct because it reflects the historical model of likely voter turnout in this district based on the most similarly held election, that being the 2006 general election, which also featured a contested race for both governor and U.S. Congress.

We do not dispute the fact that the Republican registration is 38 percent, but it is a proven fact that Republicans turn out at a higher rate than Democrats in this district.

In fact, Republicans even outvoted Democrats in this districts 2008 election for U.S. Congress by a 41R-39D margin, which was generally regarded as a high water mark election for Democratic turnout because of the concurrent presidential election.

So, based on our survey with 40 percent registered Democrats, we could even make a plausible argument that we oversampled Democrats when compared to 39 percent Democratic turnout in 2008.

2. Our ratio of voters sampled both under and over 45 years of age is spot on. Again, based on past similar elections of likely voters, more than 73 percent of ballots cast in this district were cast by voters 45 years and older, almost identical to our 75 percent of interviews conducted.

This includes 40 percent of interviews conducted with voters 60 years old and older. It is a common fact that senior citizens vote more often than any age group, and are usually the most loyal voters, particularly in a lower turnout election where the difference in votes cast between a year like 2010 and 2008 was approximately 150,000 fewer votes being cast in this district.

In a state like Florida with a higher concentration of senior citizens, we would have thought Grayson would understand this fact better than most.

Thank you, Jim Lee, for taking the time to explain survey methodology. Grayson, you may want to take his advice, since he was the most accurate pollster in the Florida primary.