Florida, the largest swing state on the electoral map, will be on center stage this week as Democrats and Republicans vote in the presidential primaries. Sunshine State News now concludes “What Candidates Have at Stake in Florida,” a look at what the remaining candidates have on the line in Tuesday’s primary.
Donald Trump has the chance to knock out two of his opponents for the Republican nomination on Tuesday with one of his rivals on the ropes in Florida.
Trump leads Marco Rubio in the Sunshine State's polls, making him the heavy favorite to win all 99 delegates on the line in Florida. Trump’s team is so confident about winning Florida that the candidate dashed off to North Carolina on Monday, hoping to claim another victory there in this week’s primaries.
Going into Florida, Trump looks solid in North Florida and he did dominate parts of Georgia and Alabama which are part of the Jacksonville, Tallahassee and Pensacola TV markets. Things also are going Trump’s way on the I-4 corridor where polls show him routing the field. South Florida appears to be Trump’s weakest area but he’s turned increasingly to that region in the final days of the campaign with rallies there.
Of course, Trump is drawing fire from all sides. Super PACs opposing Trump are running a battery of TV ads in Florida, hitting him on everything from not serving in the military during Vietnam to claiming he would get blown out in November by Hillary Clinton.
But Trump’s in the pole position in the Sunshine State regardless of all the attack ads and it looks like he’s headed for a big win in Florida. Increasingly, attention is turning to Ohio where Trump is battling John Kasich for control of the Buckeye State. Like Florida, the Ohio primary is winner take all and, if he carries both states on Tuesday, Trump will be a solid favorite to win the Republican nomination, especially since Kasich and Rubio would bow out of the race if they can’t carry their home states.
Losses in Ohio and, especially, Florida would pose a bit of a problem for Trump. Neither state is likely to go to Ted Cruz who is closer to Trump in the delegate count than Rubio or Kasich are. But delegates from both states would go into the “Never Trump” column and would make it an uphill climb for Trump to win enough delegates down the road to ensure he could get nominated on the first ballot.
Trump should win Florida and most polls show him up by double digits, some of them putting him more than 20 percent ahead of Rubio. But there are a few polls showing Rubio a bit closer though Trump’s still ahead by around a touchdown. If those polls are correct, and they are a minority of the surveys compiled in the Sunshine State, Trump might be in some jeopardy since he does have a tendency of polling better than he reels in votes.
But that’s about the only way Trump loses Florida. In North Florida, at least, Trump’s ground game has been noticeable and there are reports of massive phone banking operations across Florida on his behalf. Trump appears headed for a win in Florida, racking in almost 100 delegates, and beating Kasich out in Ohio would be icing on the cake.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
