Florida, the largest swing state on the electoral map, will be on center stage next week as Democrats and Republicans vote in the presidential primaries. In the coming days, Sunshine State News will present “What Candidates Have at Stake in Florida,” a look at what the remaining candidates have on the line in next Tuesday’s primary. The series kicks off with this look at Bernie Sanders and what he has at stake in Florida as he continues his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. The focus turns to Hillary Clinton on Thursday as the Democratic frontrunner looks to build on her win in Florida over Barack Obama in 2008 before turning to the Republicans starting on Friday. We hope readers join us as we look at “What Candidates Have at Stake in Florida” as the presidential candidates make their last pushes before the primary.
Bernie Sanders is in a familiar position as he heads into the Florida primary: an underdog against Hillary Clinton.
Sanders always had an uphill climb in the Sunshine State where Clinton beat Barack Obama back in 2008. Most of the state’s Democratic leadership is firmly behind Clinton though Sanders does have a few endorsements in the Sunshine State, including the backing of Alan Grayson and the Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida.
Clinton has a strong lead over Sanders in polls of Florida Democrats with most of them showing her ahead by more than 20 percent. Sanders has no chance of catching her and getting more votes than her.
Despite that, Sanders can add to his delegate total in Florida, even if Clinton expands her lead after Tuesday’s primary. There are 214 delegates on the line on and they’re awarded on a proportional basis. Sanders has to clear 15 percent to rack up any delegates, an easy threshold that he will clear with no problems. Some of the delegates are awarded statewide--those will mostly go to Clinton--while some are broken down by congressional district.
Sanders needs a good night in Florida on Tuesday but how good is up for debate. As of Tuesday, before results came in from the latest round of nominating contests, the Cook Political Report thinks Sanders needs 120 of the 214 delegates to be on target for the nomination. That’s simply not going to happen. FiveThirtyEight is downplaying what Sanders needs to target in Florida pointing to only 98 delegates which, while still a stretch, seems far more reasonable.
Florida was never a top target for Sanders and, at this point, he seems to be more concerned about pushing his agenda than actually winning the Democratic nomination. In retrospect, Clinton’s narrow victory in Nevada and her big win in South Carolina helped end any momentum Sanders might have garnered after he routed her in New Hampshire.
But, despite being in his mid 70s, Sanders is playing a long game here. He can go on to the Democratic convention in Philadelphia and help continue to shape the debate and drag Clinton and the platform to the left. By staying in the race, Sanders can also cement his legacy by building an organization to help set the agenda for the future.
Sanders can take a page from a fellow politician who calls the Green Mountain State home on that front. While he came up short against John Kerry and John Edwards back in 2004, Howard Dean’s bid for the Democratic nod proved influential in shaping future campaigns, including Obama’s victory over Clinton in 2008. Sanders could do something similar, leaving an organization that advocates for liberal causes and will help a sympathetic candidate down the road.
But for all of that to happen, Sanders has to keep his campaign afloat, winning delegates when he can and even besting Clinton where he can, such as he did over the weekend in Kansas, Maine and Nebraska. A win is pretty unlikely for Sanders in Florida. But picking up delegates and building an organization to shape the Democratic Party are things Sanders can expect to achieve in Florida even if he does end up behind Clinton in the Sunshine State when the smoke clears on Tuesday night.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
