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Politics

UNF Poll: Clinton Edging Out Trump in Florida

October 27, 2016 - 6:45am

Hillary Clinton continues to trounce Donald Trump in Florida, according to a poll released Thursday morning from the University of North Florida. 

In a four-way contest, Clinton leads Trump by four points, taking 43 percent of the vote with likely Florida voters while Trump takes 39 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson took six percent of the vote while Green Party candidate Jill Stein followed with three percent.

Nine percent of voters said they were still undecided. 

In a two-way contest, Clinton’s lead became smaller. In this instance, Clinton took 46 percent while Trump took 44 percent of the vote. 

The poll’s numbers have remained generally consistent in the four-way matchup, but the head-to-head numbers are much closer than UNF’s earlier polls.

"There is almost no change from our poll in early October in which Clinton led Trump by three percentage points, 41-38, in the four-way contest, but the head-to-head results have tightened considerably", said UNF political science professor and director of the school’s Public Opinion Research Lab Dr. Michael Binder.  

The gamechanger, says Binder, could be a higher turnout rate for Democrats in Florida this year. Turnout out for vote-by-mail ballots and early voting has been higher this year than in previous election cycles.

“In this election Democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida,” Binder explained. 

Both Clinton and Trump have made concentrated efforts to attempt to mobilize Florida voters this week, appearing throughout the state for rallies, urging voters to head to the polls. 

“Make sure you get out and vote,” Trump told a crowd in Tallahassee earlier this week. “We have a thing going on that they’ve never seen before. We’re going to win and we’re going to bring back a lot of good things, including common sense to the White House.”

On Wednesday, Clinton appeared in South Florida and in Tampa, where she told voters she desperately needed their help so she could win.

“We can’t take our foot off the gas, even for a short time,” Clinton said in Lake Worth. “Every vote counts.”

In the U.S. Senate race, the poll also found U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio continuing his momentum over his Democratic opponent U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy. Rubio’s lead is 49 percent over Murphy’s 43 percent, a number which has remained unchanged since the university’s previous poll released earlier this month.

The UNF survey also had good news for supporters of a constitutional amendment to expand medical marijuana. Seventy-three percent of likely voters said they were in favor of Amendment 2, which would expand the use of medical pot to patients with “debilitating” conditions.

The UNF Public Opinion Research Lab poll of 836 likely voters falls in line with several other recent polls which show Clinton routing Trump in the Sunshine State, but the margins are getting closer as Election Day draws near.

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Thursday, Oct. 20, through Oct. 25, 2016 and has a margin of error of +/-3.39 percent. 

 

Reach reporter Allison Nielsen by email at allison@sunshinestatenews.com or follow her on Twitter: @AllisonNielsen.

 

 

Comments

This race has been over for a long time now. It is all over but the crying...

A vote for Trump is a vote for America - it's salvation and success.. A vote for Hillary is a vote to kill everything we've ever worked for.

What a joke! UNF? Boy, that is stooping to desperate! Ms Nielsen , you are no journalist, go take a nap with Hillary. She likes girls and countries that brutalize girls too.

When Trump wins this race Ms Nielsen, there will always be a job for you in "Waffle House"

The question is how any moral person could vote for this lying scumbag? ....... Most everything out of his mouth is a lie.......... For instance his business is one scewing other people by lying he will pay them then paying them partly or not at all.......... And look at his campaign spending much of which goes to Trump companies and been screwing those working on his campaign by not paying them.......... He imports Polish waiters taking Florida jobs saying no one wants them is a lie....... If you think he gives a dam about you only shows how gullible and easily fooled you are........ And you call yourself a Christian .........

JERRY, YOU ARE SO OFF THE TARGET I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHERE THE BEGIN. SO INSTEAD TO TRUMP, YOU WILL LET A KNOWN LIAR, KILLER, THIEF BE ELECTED. GET REAL, YOU HAVE A BIG PROBLEM. YOUR VOTE IS A NON-CHRISTIAN VOTE. ALL THE MINISTERS ARE SUPPORT TRUMP.....NOT ONE IS SUPORTING HILLILBEAN........YOU COMMENTS ARE WORTHLESS, SAVE YOUR BREATH. TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN AND TAKE FLORIDA.....BIG. DON'T GO BY THE POLLS!

So your basing your Christian vote on someone that talks about sexual assault to women. Yea that's real Christian of him. Are you serious. Christian. Wow. DELUSIONAL. No Christian or a decent human being talks about sexual assault in private,public or where ever. That's is one of the most ridiculous reasons To vote for trump. Just it admit you like his views and want to drain the swamp. But please don't you Christianity when you talk about trump. Doesn't help you cause not one bit.

Remember: Teddy Kennedy has the ONLY "confirmed kill" in the 'progressive' Democrats' alleged "War on Women"! (Mary Jo Kopechne)... Trump LOVES America, and is intent upon improving the lives of ALL American CITIZENS;... Hillary "victimizes" American citizens, thinks they're stupid, and that they are merely "stepping stones" to more and more personal "Clinton wealth & power". MY BET???... If, perchance, she were to win this election, she will not survive her first term... She's a sick lady, both physically and mentally (The "question is": How many of us will she take with her to the grave?!?)

I don't understand how Teddy and democrats have anything to do with your response regarding my comment. Basing your vote on Trump because a Hilary vote is non-Christian is the most ridiculous reason I have ever heard.

If Hillary does win, women should hang their heads in shame, and in fear for their "offspring"! After a decade and a half of needless WAR, it is "MOMISM" run amok, with the self-proclaimed "caring Mother" and "women are the gentler sex" bullcrap destroyed for all time. Maybe the 19th Amendment to our Constitution should be repealed until today's women become more educated regarding history and civics (or at least as well as the "Suffrogettes" of the 1920's were). Mothers' used to EDUCATE their kids; today, they coddle them and "hand them off" to "surrogate baby-sitters" from infancy to "War age". Hang your heads Ladies, YOU are the root 'cause' of America's Dilemma! (As that Okeefenokee denizen proclaimed, "We have met the enemy, and he is us !" )

If Hillary does win, women should hang their heads in shame, and in fear for their "offspring"! After a decade and a half of needless WAR, it is "MOMISM" run amok, with the self-proclaimed "caring Mother" and "women are the gentler sex" bullcrap destroyed for all time. Maybe the 19th Amendment to our Constitution should be repealed until today's women become more educated regarding history and civics (or at least as well as the "Suffrogettes" of the 1920's were). Mothers' used to EDUCATE their kids; today, they coddle them and "hand them off" to "surrogate baby-sitters" from infancy to "War age". Hang your heads Ladies, YOU are the root 'cause' of America's Dilemma! (As that Okeefenokee denizen proclaimed, "We have met the enemy, and he is us !" )

Your comment couldn't be any more sexist. The whole problem with your argument is that educated women are not voting for trump. That definitely says a lot. That fact that you want to take away someones rights. Rises the question if your even a republican.

I'm NOT a Republican "Robbie", I'm an old-fashioned, logical, common-sense Democrat from a long line of similar Democrats. You should pay closer attention to my comments "Robbie"...

If only I could "see things from YOUR point-of-view" "Robert"; But that is just not possible, because your head is so far up your deep, dark, dank, place... and doesn't look as though you'll be able to extract it any time soon... Poor boy!

Sounds like you have some real personal issues "C Breeze" along a fractured ego when some lady broke your heart. I definitely wouldn't want to be in your shoes with your self esteem scraping through the floor. Good luck with that, you might want to go talk to someone.

Comments are now closed.

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