Last week, Roll Call released its latest take on the most vulnerable members of Congress--and two Florida Republicans made the list.
Pinellas County Republican David Jolly was ranked the third most vulnerable incumbent even as Roll Call rated the race as “Safe Democrat” as former Gov. Charlie Crist is running on the Democratic line. Jolly also faces retired Marines Gen. Mark Bircher, who placed third behind Jolly in the primary for the open seat back in 2014, in the Republican primary at the end of August.
“Jolly bowed out of the Senate race in mid-June, and he’s now the only member sitting in a district rated safe for the opposite party,” Roll Call noted. Recent redistricting made this Gulf Coast district much safer for Democrats, and former Gov. Charlie Crist, now a Democrat, has a financial edge. Jolly’s pledged not to directly solicit money for his campaign, and the NRCC likely won’t be helping him.”
Jolly had been running for the U.S. Senate but dropped out of that race when Marco Rubio announced at the last minute that he would run for a second term.
Also making the list was Republican Congressman Carlos Curbelo who was ranked the eighth most vulnerable incumbent. Roll Call currently considers the race a tossup.
“Republicans praise this South Florida congressman for doing everything he should be doing,” Roll Call noted. “He’s said he won’t vote for Trump , and he’s staked out moderate positions on gay rights and clean energy. Also working in his favor is a Democratic primary that won’t be resolved until August. But the 26th District, which voted for Obama by 7 points in 2012, became even more Democratic in recent redistricting, putting Curbelo at risk.”
Former Congressman Joe Garcia, who Curbelo beat in 2014, is hoping for a rematch but he will have a competitive Democratic primary next month against Annette Taddeo, Crist’s running mate in 2014 and the veteran of several unsuccessful congressional bids.
Another member of the Florida delegation was dropped from the list. Democrat Gwen Graham announced that she would not run for a second term after the latest round of redistricting made her district safe for the GOP. Whoever emerges in the Republican primary is expected to easily flip the seat Graham currently holds. Democrats have an easy pickup opportunity in Central Florida as Republican Dan Webster headed north instead of defending his current seat which now leans heavily to the Democrats.
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When you elect those who can