A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday claims the 2016 presidential election is statistically tied in Florida, with Hillary Clinton winning 43 percent of the vote or Bernie Sanders winning 44 percent, to Donald Trump's 42 percent.
"This election may be good for divorce lawyers. The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.
A 48-to-35 percent lead among women gives Clinton an overall score of 43 percent. Trump's 49-to-36 percent lead among men puts him at 42 percent of all voters.
Independent voters are divided at percent each. White voters go Republican 52-to-33 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 63-to-20 percent. Voters 18-to-34 years old back Clinton 49-to-27 percent, while voters over 65 years old back Trump 50-to-37 percent.
Clinton and Trump each get a negative 37-to-57 percent favorability rating.
"Republicans' weakness among minority voters is well known. But the reason this race is so close overall is Clinton's historic weakness among white men. In Florida, she is getting just 25 percent from white men," Brown said.
Florida voters say 54-to-40 percent that Trump would do a better job than Clinton handling the economy, and say 49-to-43 percent that he would be better on terrorism.
Voters say 52-to-38 percent that Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and 46-to-41 percent that she has higher moral standards. Clinton has the temperament to handle an international crisis, Florida voters say, by a 54-to-44 percent margin. Trump does not, voters say, by 62-to-34 percent.
Florida voters strongly support requiring voters to show a photo ID, 77-to-20 percent, including 60-to-36 percent among Democrats.
Illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship, say 57 percent of voters say, while 11 percent say they can stay, but not apply for citizenship; 25 percent say they should be required to leave the U.S.
Florida voters split at 48 percent even on whether the U.S. should build a wall along the Mexican border. Men support the wall 54-to-44 percent, with women opposed 52-to-43 percent. White voters want a wall 55-to-41 percent, with non-white voters opposed 65-to-31 percent.
"Republicans' weakness among minority voters is well known. But the reason this race is so close overall is Clinton's historic weakness among white men. In Florida, she is getting just 25 percent from white men," Brown said.
The race is also statistically tied in Pennsylvania, another swing state Quinnipiac polled, with Clinton getting 43 percent and Trump 42 percent, with Sanders beating Trump 43-to-41 percent.
However, in Ohio, another important swing state, Trump beats Clinton by 4 percentage points, 43 percent to 39 percent; but Sanders beats Trump by 2 points, 43-to-41 percent.
Have a look at the crosstabs here.
This Quinnipiac Poll was conducted April 27-May 8 by live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones. The university surveyed 1,051 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
