Two polls released on Monday find that Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum has built a lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan -- where George Romney, the father of the GOP presidential candidate, served as governor during most of the 1960s.
Santorum has been rising in state and national polls following his wins last week in contests held in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. Romney bounced back slightly on Saturday when it was announced that he had defeated Ron Paul by less than 200 votes in the Maine caucus -- which he won with 52 percent back in 2008 while John McCain placed second with 21 percent.
The two polls released on Monday found Romney could also be facing a meltdown in Michigan, which he carried by 9 percent over McCain in the 2008 Republican primary
Santorum leads among likely primary voters in Michigan according to a poll by American Research Group. The poll has Santorum out front with 33 percent, followed by Romney with 27 percent, Newt Gingrich with 21 percent and Paul with 12 percent. Six percent remain undecided and 1 percent back other candidates.
Among the 55 percent of the likely primary voters who do not consider themselves supporters of the tea party movement, Romney leads with 35 percent, followed by Santorum with 30 percent. But Romney fares badly with the 45 percent of likely primary voters who do support the tea party movement. Santorum leads them with 37 percent followed by Gingrich with 29 percent and Romney in distant third with 17 percent.
The ARG survey of 600 likely Michigan Republican primary voters was taken Feb. 11-12 and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Santorum leads a poll of Michigan from Public Policy Polling, a firm with connections to prominent Democrats, that was also unveiled on Monday.
With 39 percent, Santorum has a larger lead in the PPP poll over Romney who places second with 24 percent. Paul takes 12 percent, edging out Gingrich, who garners 11 percent, for third.
Santorum does even better with tea party supporters in the PPP poll, taking 53 percent while Romney gets the support of 22 percent of them.
According to the PPP poll, Romneys family roots are not helping him in Michigan. Only 26 percent think of Romney as a Michigander while 62 percent do not. While 39 percent have favorable opinions of George Romney, 46 percent have no opinion on that governor who held office more than decades ago.
While they may not think he is from their state, a plurality of Michigan Republicans -- 49 percent -- see Romney as favorable while 39 percent see him as unfavorable. Santorum does much better, with 67 percent having a favorable view of him while 23 percent see him as unfavorable. Gingrich and Paul are upside down. Only 32 percent of those surveyed have a favorable view of Paul, while 51 percent see him as unfavorable. Thirty-eight percent see Gingrich as favorable, while 47 percent see him as unfavorable.
Rick Santorum has all the momentum in Michigan right now, said Dean Debnam, president of PPP, on Monday.But its important to note that more than 50 percent of voters say they could change their minds in the next two weeks. Theres a lot of room for this race to shift back toward Romney in the coming days.
The PPP poll of 404 Michigan Republican primary voters was taken from Feb. 10-12 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
