State economists continue to struggle with revenue projections from the destination gaming bill that Florida legislators are expected to overhaul in coming weeks.
Economists making up the Florida Revenue Estimating Conference on Friday failed to approve working drafts that indicate the bill could result in $327 million to $455 million in additional revenue for the state in the next four years.
The draft numbers, which if ever approved could eventually be used to build the 2012-13 budget, take into account the expansion of gaming breaking the states existing 20-year compact with the Florida Seminoles and a reduction in revenue from existing pari-mutuel facilities.
State economists said there remain too many assumptions to put definitive numbers into the general revenue outlook.
The unknowns range from the eventual number of casinos that could be allowed -- the bill allows a maximum of three resorts that cost $2 billion each to build -- to the ability of developers to adhere to strict construction timelines.
The numbers as currently drafted would have the state drawing $153 million to $155 million in fiscal year 2013, the revenue dropping to $33 million to $60.6 million in 2014, $81.8 million to $102.9 million in 2015, and leveling off at $59.5 million to $137 million by 2016.
The bulk of the first-year numbers are based upon three casinos being approved that must each pay a $50 million one-time license fee.
Construction costs boost the money in years two and three, while casino revenues would begin rolling in during the 2016 fiscal year.
If there is any permitting delay, or challenges, or environmental issues, that construction schedule could slip, said Amy Baker, the states chief economist.
To the extent the schedule slips, the dollars become more of a risk.
The bill -- HB 487 filed by Rep. Erik Fresen, R-Miami, and SB 710 sponsored by Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff, R-Fort Lauderdale-- is expected to face a massive re-write following a discussion by the Senate Regulated Industries Committee on Wednesday.
Senators have suggested increasing the one-time licensing fee and adjusting the revenue tax requirements for the casinos and existing pari-mutuels to a more equitable figure.
Changes to either number would increase the projections, Baker said.
The bill has split the business community, with the Florida Chamber and Disney on one side and builders' groups headed by Associated Industries of Florida and the Florida Transportation Builders Association, looking at construction jobs, supporting the proposal.
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam and Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater on Thursday voiced their opposition to the bill.
Economists have yet to receive any direction to consider numbers other than what are currently in the bill.
Pari-mutuel owners have opposed the legislation on the grounds that the casinos would be required to pay taxes on 10 percent of revenue, while the pari-mutuels now pay 35 percent of revenue to the state.
State economists have surmised the pari-mutuels could see a 41.4 percent drop in slot revenue as people head to the luxury casinos and through competition from the Seminoles as the tribe is able to expand the gaming at the reservation facilities.
The bill, which also calls for the creation of a statewide gaming commission, is expected to have an easier journey through the Senate than the House.
Economists have also changed the projections in the past week on how much individual Floridians who visit the resorts will spend per trip on gambling, from $25 to $75.
Baker said the new numbers are based upon figures provided by the pari-mutuel industry.
Reach Jim Turner at jturner@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 215-9889.
