Democrat Maria Sachs and Republican Ellyn Bogdanoff waged the most competitive Florida Senate race in 2012 and another close contest can be expected in the rematch.
Sachs won the rare battle between two Florida Senate incumbents, beating Bogdanoff by 11,000 votes, winning by a 5.5 percent margin. But Sachs was helped by Barack Obama being on the ballot, increasing the Democratic turnout. Obama beat Mitt Romney by 6 percent in this district which includes parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties.
But 2014 will be a different story and Sachs wont be able to ride in on Obamas coattails. Sachs had a quiet session in 2014 but she still remains one of the leading Democrats in the chamber and, holding the vice chair of the Gaming Committee, if she wins in November, shell be on center stage as the Legislature kicks over expanded gambling once again.
Bogdanoff got in late but avoided a primary, chasing Joseph JB" Bensmihen out of the race. Generally a moderate Republican, Bogdanoff has the support of Jack Latvala who is trying to catch Joe Negron in the contest to become Senate president after the 2016 elections. Bogdanoff has been raising cash to make up for her late start and she has outpaced Sachs in the money chase. By Oct. 10, Bogdanoff had brought in almost $488,400, including almost $180,000 after Sept. 12, and spent almost $375,800. Its am impressive haul, especially considering her late entry into the race.
Sachs simply has not been able to hang with Bogdanoff in terms of fundraising. By Oct. 10, Sachs had raised almost $307,800 and spent $279,000 of that. Sachs had relied on almost $108,700 of in-kind donations. The Florida Democratic Party stepped in, helping Sachs more than the Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) has done for Bogdanoff.
But Sachs can afford to concede the financial edge to Bogdanoff. This is a pretty solidly blue district. Democrats make up 40 percent of voters here while 32 percent are Republicans. As is the case in so many districts across Florida, voters are increasingly finding a home outside the two major parties, rising up from 25 percent two years ago to 28 percent now.
Voters here often lean Democratic, as Obamas and Sachs wins in 2012 show. Sachs could also benefit from having Rick Scott on the ticket. Back in 2010, Scott did not do well here, running 10 percent behind Alex Sink in the gubernatorial race.
But Bogdanoff is not Scott. She is far more moderate and much more popular in the district. Sachs had a double-digit lead in the polls this summer but, at the end of September, St. Pete Polls took a survey for Saint PetersBlog which found the Republican ahead by 0.3 percent.
This one looks like its going to the wire and the stakes are high. Besides Latvalas ambitions, this race should determine if the GOP will have a super-majority in the Senate, giving them enough votes to override a veto. Thats no small thing with a close gubernatorial race between Scott and Charlie Crist.
The district favors Sachs but Bogdanoff is moderate enough to appeal to some of the voters outside the major parties. Still, even with her strong fundraising, Bogdanoff will have a hard time overcoming the districts Democratic tilt and Scotts unpopularity there.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
