Gulf currents could spare Florida's west coast beaches but bring muck and misery to the east coast, and possibly the Everglades, scientists said Tuesday.
"If the oil stays in the loop current, it will exit the Gulf of Mexico into the Florida Strait," said Richard Dodge of Nova Southeastern University.
From there, scientists say it's only a matter of time -- a week or two -- until the oil laps onto beaches in Miami and heads north all the way to Cape Hatteras, N.C.
Though closer to the oil blowout that's spewing some 210,000 gallons of crude per day, Florida's west coast beaches should be "relatively OK," said Robert Weisberg, an oceanographer from the University of South Florida in Tampa.
"There's not an immediate threat to the western coast of Florida, especially if (the oil) stays in deep water," he said.
That's because the Gulf's deep-water currents circulate south, then east around the peninsula.
An exception would be if oil gets into shallower waters, said James Fourqurean, a seagrass ecologist at Florida International University in Miami.
"Surface shear could move (oil) closer to the west coast and the Marathon Key area," he said.
The scientists, who participated in a conference call Tuesday conducted by the Everglades Foundation, were split about the chances of oil entering the Everglades.
"It's not particularly likely, but if it does happen it will be particularly bad," Fourqurean said. "Florida Bay takes in more water than it lets out -- it works as a sink, and this would be a horrible thing to happen."
Weisberg added, "Once (oil) gets in, there's no way to get it out."
For now, scientists can only monitor the Gulf currents -- and hope that engineers can finally cap off BP's ruptured well that's been disgorging oil for a week.
The explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig about 130 miles southeast of New Orleans has created a spill 600 miles in circumference -- about twice the land area of Maryland.
Forecast maps show landfall possible by 6 p.m. Wednesday near the mouths of the Mississippi River.
BP said a containment dome designed to cover the oil leak will be on the seabed Thursday, and will be hooked up to a drill ship over the weekend.
"This has never been done in 5,000 feet of water ... So we'll undoubtedly encounter some issues as we go through that process," CEO Tony Hayward told reporters in Washington. "But if that was a good outcome, then you would have the principal leak contained by the early part of next week.
"But," he cautioned, "there's no guarantees."
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
