With the Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) hosting the Sunshine State Summit conference in October as the GOP presidential hopefuls line up for 2016, a major feature of similar events from the past will be missing since there will not be a straw poll.
The RPOF boasts that the first three presidential straw polls it helped produced the eventual Republican nominee, and they have a point. But with rare exceptions -- like Wendell Willkie in 1940 -- the Republicans usually nominate the front-runner who, almost always, has run for the presidency before. The one nominee in recent years who never previously ran for the presidency was George W. Bush back in 2000 -- but he was the son and namesake of the last Republican president.
Looking back on prior RPOF straw polls, front-runners reinforce their favorite status by winning, while second place often turns out to be an illusion. But last time out, a candidate won the RPOF straw poll who didn’t even make it to the starting line in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The first RPOF “Presidency” straw poll was held in November 1979, and it proved to be somewhat decisive in shaping the rest of the race. While Ronald Reagan had given incumbent Gerald Ford a close battle for the Republican presidential nomination in 1976, there was a pack of GOP hopefuls who felt Democrat Jimmy Carter was weak. Former Texas Gov. John Connally -- a former Democrat wooed over to the GOP by Richard Nixon and best remembered today for his gunshot wound during the JFK assassination in Dallas -- had more money than any other candidate in the race and expected to trip Reagan up in the straw poll.
With the support of the state party, Reagan prevailed, taking 36 percent. Despite hectic campaigning across the Sunshine State and spending a bit, Connally took second with 27 percent -- a strong showing undermined by his camp expecting to win, with his handlers even issuing a press release claiming a major upset victory. Third place went to a bit of a dark horse -- a former diplomat, congressman and CIA chief by the name of George H.W. Bush, who was starting to emerge as a national force. Bush took 21 percent, setting the stage for his surprising victory in the Iowa caucus and his rise to the vice presidency under Reagan.
With the support of then-Gov. Bob Martinez and most of the party leadership in the Sunshine State, Bush trounced the field in the Presidency 2 straw poll in November 1987, while some of the other candidates stayed home. Bush took 57 percent with second place going to evangelical leader Pat Robertson at 37 percent. Third place, at 3 percent, went to Jack Kemp, who did not speak at the event. Bob Dole, who would go on to win the Iowa caucus, Pete duPont and Alexander Haig lagged behind.
While Bush ultimately won the 1988 general election, he did face challenges for the Republican nomination in 1992 from conservative commentator Pat Buchanan and former Louisiana state legislator and white supremacist leader David Duke. The RPOF did not host a straw poll during that election cycle.
When Florida Republicans convened for Presidency 3 in November 1995, Dole -- a veteran U.S. senator who had made previous bids for national office as Gerald Ford's running mate in 1976, as well as stabs at the Republican presidential nomination in 1980 and 1988 -- was the man to beat, despite flopping badly in the last straw polls. Phil Gramm, then a senator from Texas, and Lamar Alexander, who had been governor of Tennessee and U.S. education secretary, tried to trip Dole up. Dole took 33 percent of the vote to win the poll, with Gramm taking 26 percent and Alexander 23 percent.
While Dole went on to win the nomination, Gramm flopped badly on the campaign trail and didn't even survive to make it to New Hampshire, home of the first presidential primary. Buchanan, who was once again seeking the Republican nomination, downplayed the straw poll but still garnered 9 percent there. Buchanan went on to win New Hampshire against Dole.
Another candidate who did surprisingly well in the primaries, businessman and publisher Steve Forbes, took less than 1 percent in the Florida straw poll.
With Republicans in Florida -- including then-Gov. Jeb Bush, of course -- firmly behind George W. Bush in 2000, there was no Presidency event for that election cycle. The same held true in the 2004 campaign, when the president garnered no challengers in the primaries.
While the RPOF staged Presidency 4 in October 2007, they decided against a straw poll, although they held a debate between the various candidates which was televised on CNN. Attendees included eventual winner John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo (who would pull out of the race before the actual first contest).
The straw poll came back in September 2011 and led to a major upset. Georgia businessman Herman Cain, a favorite of the tea party movement, claimed victory, taking 37 percent after Rick Perry stumbled badly in a televised debate. Perry placed second with 15 percent but his campaign never quite got back on track and he bowed out after poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire. Mitt Romney, who would win the Florida primary and the nomination, took third with 14 percent.
After the straw poll, Cain would have a brief ride as the leader in the national polls. But he quickly faced a series of accusations over sexual harassment and charges that he had engaged in a long-term extramarital affair. Cain dropped in the polls and in December 2011, before the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, he ended his bid for the Republican nomination.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
