In the weeks to come, John Boehner could cast a large shadow over the race to replace Marco Rubio in the Senate.
On Tuesday, Politico reported that Boehner’s inner circle is expecting another attempt to oust the Ohio congressman as speaker of the House with votes over the budget, including threats of a federal shutdown and attempts to defund Planned Parenthood, in the weeks ahead.
Boehner’s leadership could impact two Florida congressmen aiming to replace Rubio in 2016: Ron DeSantis and David Jolly. Conservatives are increasingly calling for Boehner’s scalp and, with right-of-center voters playing a large role in GOP primaries in Florida, DeSantis and Jolly know eyes across the Sunshine State will be on them.
Florida Republicans were at the center of the effort to defeat Boehner earlier this year. Boehner faced two challengers from Florida in Dan Webster and Ted Yoho. Webster proved the more serious threat and he had the support of Rich Nugent and Bill Posey in the Florida delegation while Curt Clawson went his own way and voted for Rand Paul.
Some conservatives were hopeful that DeSantis would join the anti-Boehner effort but, when the smoke cleared, he stayed behind the speaker. Certainly he was the most notable conservative from Florida who did not join the coup. Conservatives, including some that are backing him in the Senate race, were disappointed by DeSantis not going against the speaker.
DeSantis profited in the short run. While Webster and Nugent were booted off the Rules Committee for their effort against Boehner, DeSantis rose in the House, moving up to chair the National Security Subcommittee and keep his vicechairmanship of the Constitution and Civil Justice Subcommittee.
Still, DeSantis bowed out of the GOP leadership team earlier this year as well, saying he could not always toe the party line on procedural votes and other matters. DeSantis is also part of the House Freedom Caucus which has often pushed back against Boehner. Having forgone a third term in the House to run for the Senate, DeSantis has plenty of room to vote against the speaker.
Jolly also backed Boehner in January but is in a far different position than he was earlier in the year. First elected to Congress in a special election last year, Jolly looked to be a rising star in the House, winning a coveted seat on the Appropriations Committee. But Jolly has been impacted by the ongoing congressional redistricting drama and got into the Senate race instead of defending a congressional seat that looks far more palatable for the Democrats.
In the early stages of the Senate campaign, Jolly has gone out of his way to highlight his conservative credentials including opposing Obamcare, supporting defunding Planned Parenthood and cutting the national debt. Some conservatives have questioned Jolly on a few of his stances ---support of same-sex marriage, backing Obama’s efforts to normalize relations with Cuba -- but the Pinellas County congressman has the backing of some tea party favorites. Nugent is backing Jolly but then so’s Dennis Ross, part of the House leadership as senior deputy majority whip.
Jolly has an opportunity to reassure some of his conservative doubters by voting against Boehner in a leadership contest. Now that he is heading out of the House, Jolly doesn’t have to worry about going along to get along and can break with leadership.
DeSantis and Jolly also can shield themselves from attacks by other primary rivals. Carlos Lopez-Canter and Todd Wilcox will fire away at both congressmen, linking them to the continued mess in Washington. By voting against Boehner, DeSantis and Jolly have some more ammunition to defend themselves and fire back. Based on a recent interview with Saint Petersblog, DeSantis, at least, understands how frustrated conservatives are with Congress.
Boehner’s position is weaker than it was earlier this year when he beat back Webster’s and Yoho’s challenges. Florida Republicans were Boehner’s chief opponents inside the GOP caucus -- and DeSantis and Jolly might be able to help their Senate bids by standing against him.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
